How the US can offer a realistic response to the ‘China challenge’
- China’s rise in a multipolar world must be fully acknowledged, but exaggerating its capabilities and ambition is unhelpful and possibly destructive
- Great power competition is not a strategy, and there are more subtle ways to respond, including by ‘nudging’ China through cooperation
With strong bipartisan consensus, China has become America’s arch-enemy. It is thought to be undermining the US-led liberal order, seeking to supplant the United States as the regional, if not world, hegemon. Its ideology, economic practices and assertive behaviour are trampling on the values of human rights, fair play and regional stability.
China cannot surpass the US in military sophistication, readiness and global reach. The US has a military presence in more than 80 countries and territories worldwide. It has formidable naval and missile assets in the homeland and the first- and second-island chains to deter and prevail against any Chinese aggression.
Territorial claims notwithstanding, China’s South China Sea manoeuvring is designed to safeguard its energy resources and trade against perceived American military encirclement. Globally, China’s footprint is predominantly geopolitical and economic.
Contrary to popular theories such as The Hundred Year Marathon, China would be foolish to try becoming a global or even a regional hegemon. Apart from overreaching, China’s ideology is not widely embraced. It would be far better for China to remain the world’s largest trader, manufacturer and market. Beijing has repeatedly emphasised its lack of desire for hegemony.
Nevertheless, China is already the world’s second-largest economy. Out of 190 countries, 128 have China as their largest trading partner.
China is second only to the US in the number of scientific journal publications, while its leading universities are climbing global rankings. More than 40 per cent of China’s 45 million university graduates are in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. Blocking China’s access to game-changing technologies might slow its technological advance, but it will not derail it.
Among its recipe is a suggestion to precipitate China’s political fracture or President Xi Jinping’s departure. However, with a remarkable economic track record, the Communist Party remains popular and legitimate among the Chinese people, according to a Harvard Kennedy School report. Meddling in China’s internal politics would only inflame confrontational nationalism.
In any case, America’s “unipolar moment” is past. The reality of China’s rise in a multipolar world must be fully acknowledged. Great power competition, however, is not a strategy. The following might offer some realistic pointers in response to the “China challenge”.
First, the US must put its own house in order. Despite its shortcomings, the Longer Telegram at least gets this right. The US needs a “meticulous strategy” to address “structural economic weaknesses in manufacturing, trade, finance, human capital and now technology”. Above all, it must heal its social, economic, racial and partisan divide to truly be the United States of America.
Second, to extend liberal hegemony, the US needs to “be more liberal and less hegemonic”, as Fareed Zakaria suggests. It should uphold and, where justified, reform multilateral institutions and agreements for the common good. There is a lot of difference between America, Inc. and a nation that rallies the world through moral leadership.
Fourth, the US should “co-opt” China’s Belt and Road Initiative on selected projects, partnering with the World Bank, NGOs and local stakeholders. This would showcase how international standards of openness, accountability, governance, human rights and ecological safeguards can best be upheld, as Eyck Freymann suggests in One Belt One Road – Chinese Power Meets the World.
Finally, liberty is often a narrow domestic struggle between a strong state and a weak one, according to Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson. For a continent-sized China with order and security imperatives, a strategy of “nudging” through US-China cooperation in this narrow corridor could yield surprising dividends.
Andrew K.P. Leung is an independent China strategist. [email protected]