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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Opinion
Andrew Leung
Andrew Leung

How the US can offer a realistic response to the ‘China challenge’

  • China’s rise in a multipolar world must be fully acknowledged, but exaggerating its capabilities and ambition is unhelpful and possibly destructive
  • Great power competition is not a strategy, and there are more subtle ways to respond, including by ‘nudging’ China through cooperation

With strong bipartisan consensus, China has become America’s arch-enemy. It is thought to be undermining the US-led liberal order, seeking to supplant the United States as the regional, if not world, hegemon. Its ideology, economic practices and assertive behaviour are trampling on the values of human rights, fair play and regional stability.

Americans’ negative views of China have reached historic highs. The US, along with its allies, must continue to push China back, at all costs short of war, save for limited opportunities for cooperation. This seems to inform US President Joe Biden’s policy of “extreme competition”. While understandable, such “extremism” could veer towards Sinophobia. 

China cannot surpass the US in military sophistication, readiness and global reach. The US has a military presence in more than 80 countries and territories worldwide. It has formidable naval and missile assets in the homeland and the first- and second-island chains to deter and prevail against any Chinese aggression.

Territorial claims notwithstanding, China’s South China Sea manoeuvring is designed to safeguard its energy resources and trade against perceived American military encirclement. Globally, China’s footprint is predominantly geopolitical and economic.

Contrary to popular theories such as The Hundred Year Marathon, China would be foolish to try becoming a global or even a regional hegemon. Apart from overreaching, China’s ideology is not widely embraced. It would be far better for China to remain the world’s largest trader, manufacturer and market. Beijing has repeatedly emphasised its lack of desire for hegemony. 

01:25

China-India border clash in June left four PLA troops dead and one injured, report says

China-India border clash in June left four PLA troops dead and one injured, report says
Despite a lack of allies, a newly minted Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment have happened without the US. However, these economic partners are not at Beijing’s beck and call.
Notwithstanding its lead in 5G infrastructure and artificial intelligence, China’s technological prowess can be exaggerated. American superiority remains in semiconductors, software systems and cloud computing, not to mention its talent ecosystem.
China struggles when denied access to American high-end semiconductor chips. Its aviation industry cannot take off without American or European jet-engine technologies. China’s resurgent economic growth hides severe challenges of sagging productivity and worsening demographics

Nevertheless, China is already the world’s second-largest economy. Out of 190 countries, 128 have China as their largest trading partner.

01:15

China-Australia trade: Beijing set to ban nearly US$400 million worth of Australian wheat imports

China-Australia trade: Beijing set to ban nearly US$400 million worth of Australian wheat imports
China is also developing a sovereign digital currency, supported by a joint venture with the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, the world’s premier network for international transactions. While the US dollar remains supreme as a global reserve currency, the extent of China’s dependence on it will only diminish.

China is second only to the US in the number of scientific journal publications, while its leading universities are climbing global rankings. More than 40 per cent of China’s 45 million university graduates are in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. Blocking China’s access to game-changing technologies might slow its technological advance, but it will not derail it.

Recently, a supposed China expert in the US anonymously penned a 26,000-word “Longer Telegram” on how to win the great power competition with China. It has somehow failed to wow the foreign policy cognoscenti.

Among its recipe is a suggestion to precipitate China’s political fracture or President Xi Jinping’s departure. However, with a remarkable economic track record, the Communist Party remains popular and legitimate among the Chinese people, according to a Harvard Kennedy School reportMeddling in China’s internal politics would only inflame confrontational nationalism.

06:15

Who has the upper hand in the India-China border dispute?

Who has the upper hand in the India-China border dispute?
Another suggested ploy for the US is to isolate China by wooing Russia. This is unlikely to succeed, considering the wounds of the collapsed Soviet Union, fickle American politics and recent US sanctions. After all, unlike China, there is not much Russia can sell to the US and vice versa.

In any case, America’s “unipolar moment” is past. The reality of China’s rise in a multipolar world must be fully acknowledged. Great power competition, however, is not a strategy. The following might offer some realistic pointers in response to the “China challenge”. 

First, the US must put its own house in order. Despite its shortcomings, the Longer Telegram at least gets this right. The US needs a “meticulous strategy” to address “structural economic weaknesses in manufacturing, trade, finance, human capital and now technology”. Above all, it must heal its social, economic, racial and partisan divide to truly be the United States of America.

04:33

As Biden enters White House, world leaders express ‘relief’ and welcome ‘friend’ and ‘mate’ back

As Biden enters White House, world leaders express ‘relief’ and welcome ‘friend’ and ‘mate’ back

Secondto extend liberal hegemony, the US needs to “be more liberal and less hegemonic”, as Fareed Zakaria suggests. It should uphold and, where justified, reform multilateral institutions and agreements for the common good. There is a lot of difference between America, Inc. and a nation that rallies the world through moral leadership.

Thirdbeyond freedom of navigation operations, joint US-China naval patrols are possible in the wider waters of the South China Sea to send a powerful calming message to the world. Setting aside differences between territorial claimants, the US should arrange with China multilateral energy exploration and management of ecological resources in these waters.

Fourththe US should “co-opt” China’s Belt and Road Initiative on selected projects, partnering with the World Bank, NGOs and local stakeholders. This would showcase how international standards of openness, accountability, governance, human rights and ecological safeguards can best be upheld, as Eyck Freymann suggests in One Belt One Road – Chinese Power Meets the World. 

Fifth, America should rethink how best to promote liberty, freedom and democracy and to turn foes into allies. Examples of Iraq and Afghanistan show that regime change often fails spectacularly. Similarly, it is instructive how Vietnam has been won over, decades after a disastrous war. Economics are far better than guns and bombs. 

Finally, liberty is often a narrow domestic struggle between a strong state and a weak one, according to Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson. For a continent-sized China with order and security imperatives, a strategy of “nudging” through US-China cooperation in this narrow corridor could yield surprising dividends.

Andrew K.P. Leung is an independent China strategist. [email protected]

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