The ‘what if?’ moments on path to where Hong Kong is today
- There have been some key turning points that might have altered history if they had been handled differently. Hopefully, it is still not too late to learn from the past
If a week is a long time in politics, the last seven days in Hong Kong have seemed like an eternity. Beijing’s plan to overhaul the election system and sideline the opposition has emerged. It is expected to be approved in Beijing this week, as the central government moves to ensure “patriots” govern the city.
Meanwhile, charges of subversion were laid against 47 opposition politicians who might have been expected to be vocal opponents of the reforms. Most of them remain in custody after torturous bail proceedings lasted all week.
The impact of the security law, passed by Beijing in response to months of violent anti-government protests in 2019, is being felt more broadly. Civil society is in retreat as people err on the side of caution rather than risk crossing the law’s ill-defined red lines.
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The dream of Hong Kong emerging as a free and democratic part of China under the “one country, two systems” concept has been shattered. The city is losing its dynamism. Where did it all go wrong?
Who you blame, no doubt, depends on which political camp you support. Is it the protesters for their violence and calls for Hong Kong independence? The democrats for supporting them? The pro-establishment camp for telling Beijing what it wanted to hear rather than seeking constructive solutions for Hong Kong? Beijing for tightening its grip on the city? Or Hong Kong officials for pandering to vested interests and failing to tackle deep-rooted problems? You can take your pick.
There have, however, been some key turning points that might have altered history if handled differently.
What if the top court had not been so bold in its initial ruling on the Basic Law in 1999? It sparked a constitutional crisis and led Beijing to deliver its first interpretation of the Basic Law. An early precedent was set for intervention by the central government.
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Would things have been different if Hong Kong had passed its own national security laws? A bid by the government to push such legislation through in 2003 was shelved after a protest by 500,000 people. The proposals would have undermined human rights but they were not as draconian as the security law the city has ended up with. Passing those laws might have encouraged Beijing to be more open-minded on democratic reform. Instead, it stepped in to take tighter control of the process in 2004.
Three years later, however, Beijing decided universal suffrage would be allowed for the election of the chief executive in 2017. It believed Hong Kong’s leader needed a mandate from the public in order to be able to govern effectively.
But hopes were dashed in 2014 when tight restrictions were imposed by Beijing on the nomination of candidates. What if Beijing had adopted a more moderate approach and allowed Hong Kong to develop its own proposals? A consensus might have been reached. The Occupy protests and all that has followed may have been avoided. But perhaps the divisions were already too deep.
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Maybe the democrats should have swallowed their principles and reluctantly supported the limited version of universal suffrage on offer instead of voting it down. This would have changed the dynamics of the election and perhaps a different path would have been followed.
And what if Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor had never dreamed up the idea of an extradition bill? Her attempt to ram through the controversial law led hundreds of thousands to protest, peacefully at first. Later, the protests turned violent. If she had withdrawn the bill at an early stage – she did it too late – the trauma of 2019 and the subsequent backlash from Beijing might have been avoided.
It is sad to see the imaginative one country, two systems concept unravelling. It was never going to be easy to implement. A failure to reconcile the aspirations of Hong Kong people with the imperatives of Beijing threatens its demise. Hopefully, it is not too late to learn from the past and to find a way of bridging that divide.
