Upbeat post-pandemic forecasts mask the real dangers of political and social instability

Social scarring from mass tragedies doesn’t usually show up for years, and Covid-19 will be no different
The pandemic has ripped open economic divides that will disproportionately affect countries where tensions are already high

Kent Harrington

Published: 1:30am, 28 Mar, 2021

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With vaccinations raising hopes for an end to the pandemic, predictions about the post-Covid-19 world are multiplying fast. From envisioning a reordered economy to forecasting how people will live, work and play, experts are doing their best to extrapolate from developments the coronavirus has put into motion.

In the United States, most forecasters are fixated on the likelihood of higher US economic growth following mass vaccination and a new US$1.9 trillion recovery package. Fortunately, economists at the International Monetary Fund have provided some balance to the prevailing bullishness.

Philip Barrett, Sophia Chen and Nan Li point out that the pandemic’s political impact has yet to materialise. As they noted in a blog post in February, “history is replete with examples of disease outbreaks casting long shadows of social repercussions”.

Social scarring from mass tragedies doesn’t usually show up for years, and there is no reason to think Covid-19 will be different. Today’s lockdowns, limited mobility and crisis-induced displays of national unity merely mask the pandemic’s full effects.

Any intelligence analyst who has struggled with forecasting political events would advise you to follow the IMF economists’ research. Their findings reflect data collected on 569 episodes of social unrest across 130 countries from the 1980s to 2020 and around 11,000 epidemics and natural disasters since 1990.

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What can the past 30 to 40 years tell us about potential threats to stability in the future? Contagions aren’t conducive to protests, nor are authoritarian regimes reluctant to use them to tighten the political screws.

Nevertheless, Barrett, Chen and Li show that whatever initial dampening effects a disease outbreak has, it brings a “heightened risk of a major government crisis – an event that threatens to bring down the government and that typically occurs in the two years following a severe epidemic”.

Another analysis warning of future political and social instability comes from global consulting group Verisk Maplecroft. Its Civil Unrest Index tracks the causes and outcomes of unrest in 198 countries, rating the risks to businesses at state and provincial levels. In December, the index showed the likelihood of growing protests in 75 countries through to 2022.

Like the IMF economists, Verisk Maplecroft argues that the pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing social and political tensions. A surge in instability will “take place against a backdrop of a painful post-pandemic economic recovery that will likely inflame existing public dissatisfaction with governments”.

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Historical parallels aren’t the only reason to worry about the pandemic’s implications for social and political stability. The fallout from recent policy and governance failures also warrants a closer look.

The vaccination effort is an example. Despite notable progress in developed countries, the World Health Organization reports that almost 130 countries had not administered a single dose as of mid-February. Even in India, the world’s largest vaccine producer, only 3.3 per cent of the population had received shots by March 24, compared to 25.6 per cent in the US.

The implications of these trends aren’t hard to discern. Consider Africa, home to the world’s 10 youngest countries and where youth unemployment is widespread. Africa lags far behind in vaccinating its population, yet without vaccinations Covid-19 will continue to constrain African economies and jobless youths will become a source of political instability – as is true in Latin America and Asia.

Last October, the World Bank projected that the pandemic would push as many as 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. Recent forecasts indicate some 85 developing countries might not have enough vaccines to protect their populations before 2023.

Put bluntly, the pandemic has ripped open divides that will disproportionately affect countries where ethnic, class and caste tensions are already high.

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Attempts to predict political instability can go too far, of course. In 1983, the CIA transmitted the first edition of its “Indications of Political Instability in Key Countries”. The authors justified their efforts, saying “US policymakers need to know which countries are ripe for revolution and insurgency”.

Reflecting on the effort five years later, a senior intelligence analyst cautioned that forecasting the risk of instability “will remain an art, not a science”. Devising indicators can help anticipate destabilising developments, but “no computer program will do our job for us”.

CIA analysts today would doubtless agree that forecasts are one thing and warnings another. As the IMF economists explain, “understanding the implications of epidemics on social unrest is crucial for preparing for potential social repercussions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic”. Wherever their future research takes them, they have delivered a valuable warning.

Kent Harrington, a former senior CIA analyst, served as national intelligence officer for East Asia, chief of station in Asia, and the CIA’s director of public affairs. Copyright: Project Syndicate

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