Smoke billows from an unauthorised steel factory in Inner Mongolia, China, on November 4, 2016. Photo: Getty Images
Opinion
Paul G. Harris
Paul G. Harris
US-China climate change cooperation sparks optimism, but addiction to fossil fuels remains strong
Will Joe Biden and Xi Jinping’s actions be enough to set their countries on a course towards rapid decarbonisation? If current and past practices are accurate guides, there is ample reason to worry
Sino-US relations are at their lowest point in more than half a century. The two countries disagree on just about everything, but there is one topic on which they still seem to agree – climate change.
Shortly after last month’s rancorous meeting between Chinese and American diplomats in Alaska, China’s Foreign Ministry announced the two sides would start a climate “working group”. Not long thereafter, US President Joe Bideninvited Chinese President Xi Jinping to participate in this month’s virtual Leaders Summit on Climate, to be held on Earth Day.
Together, China and the United States account for more than 40 per cent of global carbon emissions. At first glance, there appears to be reason for some optimism that they recognise the urgency to act swiftly to bring down those emissions.
On his first day in the White House, Biden reversed many of the Trump administration’s most damaging climate policies. He has returned the US to the Paris Agreement and pledged that the country would cut its greenhouse gas pollution substantially. His US$2 trillion infrastructure plan will be skewed towards reducing US reliance on fossil fuels.
Meanwhile, Xi has said climate change is a high priority for China, both domestically and internationally. He has declared China will become an “ecological civilisation” and will achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. China already leads the world in the production of solar panels and alternative energy transport.
But will actions by Biden and Xi be enough to set their countries on a course towards rapid decarbonisation? If current and past practices are accurate guides, there is ample reason to worry.
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China vows carbon neutrality by 2060 during one-day UN biodiversity summit
China vows carbon neutrality by 2060 during one-day UN biodiversity summit
Despite concern around the world about the climate crisis – what UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and others have called the climate emergency – the global pollution that causes climate change is still increasing. Many countries, including China, have responded to the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic by increasing their use of coal.
By December last year, global carbon dioxide emissions surpassed what they were when the pandemic began. Today, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the highest it has been in more than 3 million years.
Global warming has already reached 1.2 degrees Celsius above historical averages, which is 80 per cent of the 1.5 degrees warming limit set by the Paris Agreement. All the pledges by governments around the world to achieve the Paris targets are insufficient to prevent warming of more than 3 degrees this century.
Compared to 2010, carbon emissions need to drop by nearly half no later than 2030 if warming is not to exceed 1.5 degrees.
Yet, governments have plans to produce 120 per cent more fossil fuels by 2030 than could be burned to avoid warming of 1.5 degrees, and 50 per cent more than would be compatible with avoiding warming of 2 degrees.
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Chinese cash funds African coal plants despite environmental concerns
Chinese cash funds African coal plants despite environmental concerns
Even if the most ambitious pledges under the Paris Agreement are fully implemented, when compared to 2010 global reductions in emissions, it will amount to less than 1 per cent in 2030.
The prospect of that minuscule cut is all that the world’s governments have been willing to promise, let alone implement, despite more than three decades of international negotiations and policymaking on climate change.
The world remains addicted to fossil fuels, which still provide about 80 per cent of global energy. That addiction will not abate as quickly as Biden and Xi seem to expect, not least because of events in their own countries.
The American democratic political system has been exploited for decades by actors seeking to weaken policies on climate change. That has been a winning strategy for the Republican Party since the 1990s.
Meanwhile, Biden’s recently approved US$1.9 trillion Covid-19 recovery plan aims to stimulate the US economy by putting money into the pockets of millions of Americans. They will spend it to consume more stuff, in the process producing more climate-changing pollution.
In China, bold pronouncements to “go green” contrast with official plans and actions. New coal-fired power plants are still being built there, and the government is funding construction of many more of them in countries that are part of the Belt and Road Initiative.
The recently revealed 14th five-year plan calls for more reliance on fossil fuels, not less. Much as in the US, China’s government is pumping money into the economy to stoke consumption. Consequently, China’s carbon emissions are rising.
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Chinese scientists cover melting glacier with quilts to slow loss linked to climate change
Chinese scientists cover melting glacier with quilts to slow loss linked to climate change
There are similar trends around the world. Each country is focused on its narrowly perceived short-term interests, which in practice often means promoting the interests of well-connected economic and political actors that are at best hesitant about abandoning fossil fuels.
This puts the challenge for the Sino-US working group on climate change into sharp perspective. If Biden and Xi can lead their countries to genuine cooperation – and far more action – on climate change, history could judge them favourably.
Regardless, we can say with certainty that neither of them will live long enough to see an end to the climate crisis. It is all but certain that their grandchildren will live in a world that has experienced more than twice as much warming as today’s, with all of the human and environmental tragedies that such a world portends.
Paul G. Harris is author, most recently, of Pathologies of Climate Governance (Cambridge University Press, 2021), and chair professor of Global and Environmental Studies at the Education University of Hong Kong
