Little sign of Duterte’s promised ‘separation’ from the US as China-Philippines relations crumble
The planned pivot to China has stalled amid unfulfilled promises of Chinese investment and increasingly contentious interactions in the South China Sea
Meanwhile, the Philippine-US alliance appears to be growing stronger despite Duterte’s wishes as anti-China sentiment rises ahead of next year’s election
“In this venue, your honours, I announce my separation from the United States, both in military, not maybe social, but economics also,” Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said during his historic visit to Beijing in 2016. Speaking before his Chinese hosts, the Filipino populist defiantly declared, “America has lost now. I have realigned myself in your ideological flow … It is the only way.”
Five years later, however, there is little sign of “separation” between the Philippines and the US, its century-old ally. Meanwhile, bilateral relations with China have become increasingly contentious amid festering disputes in the South China Sea.
The recent stand-off over the Whitsun Reef, a contested land feature in the Spratly Islands, has exposed the fragility of Duterte’s pivot to China. By all indications, the Philippines is tilting back into America’s embrace while Duterte’s successors could struggle to maintain similarly friendly relations with China.
Duterte’s victory in the 2016 presidential election upended the country’s foreign and defence policy. In an unprecedented departure, he signalled a new era of “independent” foreign policy by diversifying the Philippines’ external relations away from Washington in favour of alternative powers.
At the heart of Duterte’s strategic revolt was the cultivation of warmer ties with China. Months before his victory, he told the media, “What I need from China is help to develop my country.” In exchange for Chinese economic assistance, Duterte downplayed bilateral disputes in the South China Sea and even offered “co-ownership” of disputed resources.
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Philippine coastguard sends strong warning to Chinese vessels during South China Sea patrol
Philippine coastguard sends strong warning to Chinese vessels during South China Sea patrol
Pleased by Duterte’s strategic recalibration, China offered US$24 billion in investment, including infrastructure projects on Duterte’s home island of Mindanao in the southern Philippines. China also relaxed restrictions on Philippine fishing vessels’ access to the contested Scarborough Shoal, a land feature located within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but under Beijing’s administrative control since 2012.
Confident of his strategic gamble, Duterte claimed that if the Philippines would “remain meek and humble” it could, in exchange, secure China’s “mercy”. All the while, however, Duterte’s China policy faced scepticism among the country’s defence establishment as well as the general public.
Over the years, Duterte’s pivot to China was severely tested. To begin with, China’s promise of large-scale infrastructure investments have gone largely unfulfilled because of a combination of regulatory bottlenecks, bureaucratic red tape, national security considerations and public scepticism.
Meanwhile, South China Sea disputes became more contentious, especially after a suspected Chinese militia rammed and almost drowned 22 Filipino fishermen in the energy-rich Reed Bank in 2019. Duterte sought to preserve warm bilateral relations by downplaying the sinking, which provoked nationwide anger in the Philippines, as “a little maritime incident” but to no avail.
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Explained: the history of China’s territorial disputes
Explained: the history of China’s territorial disputes
If anything, anti-China sentiment has hardened among Filipinos, a development that has empowered the defence establishment to maintain robust military cooperation with Washington despite Duterte’s consistent threat of “separation” from America.
This is the context within which one should understand the important ramifications of the recent stand-off over the Whitsun Reef, which provoked an unexpected war of words and prompted the Philippines to threaten to expel a Chinese diplomat in Manila.
First, both sides seem to be hardening their respective positions in the South China Sea. China is increasingly banking on an armada of well-equipped paramilitary forces to enforce its claims in the contested areas, with the Chinese coastguard and People’s Liberation Army Navy waiting just over the horizon.
Meanwhile, the Philippines defence establishment and China hawks within Duterte’s cabinet are also upping the ante. Shortly after hundreds of suspected Chinese paramilitary vessels surrounded the Philippine-claimed Whitsun Reef and nearby land features, the Philippine Department of Defence and military deployed fighter jets and naval patrols to the area.
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Philippines sounds alarm over 200 Chinese ships in the South China Sea
Philippines sounds alarm over 200 Chinese ships in the South China Sea
The Armed Forces of the Philippines, historically trained and equipped by the US, vowed that “[we will] not renege from our commitment to protect and defend our maritime interest within the bounds of the law”.
Philippine Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, a former defence attaché in Washington, adopted particularly tough rhetoric. He accused China of “utter disregard” for international law and called on the Chinese vessels to “stop this incursion” which was “violating our maritime rights and encroaching into our sovereign territory”.
Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Teodoro Locsin dismissed China’s claim that the boats were harmlessly operating within “traditional fishing grounds”. He warned he would make diplomatic protests “every day until the last one’s gone like it should be by now if it is really fishing”.
The second important implication of the Whitsun Reef stand-off is the likely fortification of the Philippine-US alliance. Lorenzana and Locsin are staunch advocates of robust defence cooperation with the US, which deployed several warships to the area in a show of support for its ally.
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Philippine President Duterte admits being at a loss getting Beijing to honour South China Sea ruling
Philippine President Duterte admits being at a loss getting Beijing to honour South China Sea ruling
The Biden administration has made it clear it is obliged to come to the Philippines’ aid in the event of an external attack on its assets and troops. Against the backdrop of rising tensions with China, it is now almost certain that the Philippine defence establishment will successfully restore the Philippine-US Visiting Forces Agreement, a key defence deal Duterte has sought to abrogate amid human rights-related disagreements with Washington.
Finally, there is the Philippine presidential election in mid-2022, where China will loom large as a major campaign issue. The Whitsun Reef stand-off and Duterte’s inability to secure major concessions from Beijing will almost certainly affect the tempo of the election as well as the calculus of Duterte’s successor, who will face a more Sino-sceptic public and an empowered Washington-aligned defence establishment.
Despite all his popularity and populist defiance, Duterte’s earlier hope of “separation” from the US in favour of China seems more aspirational than real, especially as the South China Sea disputes become ever more contentious.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author of “Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for the Western Pacific” and the forthcoming “Duterte’s Rise
