A nation’s most important asset is human capital. China’s once-in-a-decade census shows that although there has been a slowdown in growth, there are still more people today than when the last count was done in 2010. The data is not as bleak as some economists had predicted, giving Beijing more room to balance policies and changing demographic circumstances. Time and space are crucial when assessing and serving the needs of the world’s biggest population. The National Bureau of Statistics found the mainland had a population of 1.412 billion at the end of last year, an increase of 12 million over 2019. Some analysts had forecast the first shrinking of numbers since 1961, when the nation was gripped by famine. But the growth rate for the decade was still the slowest since the 1950s, with an average annual increase of 0.53 per cent. Figures are expected to peak in coming years, perhaps as early as 2025. With the population ageing fast and birth rate falling, a decline in the overall figure is not a matter of if, but when. The census showed that the time is rapidly approaching, with the number of people aged 60 and older amounting to 18.7 per cent of the population last year, up from 13.3 per cent in 2010, while there was an 18 per cent year-on-year drop in the number of babies born to 12 million. The fertility rate was 1.3 children per woman, markedly lower than the replenishment level of 2.1. Further challenges lay in the data for the working-age population, the share of those between 15 and 59 years falling to 63 per cent in 2020 from 70 per cent a decade earlier. The trend has obvious implications for tax income, pensions and elderly care, which is why Premier Li Keqiang announced at the National People’s Congress a gradual lifting of the retirement age in coming years. But there was a bright spot, with an unexpected increase in the proportion of the population aged 14 and under rising from 16.6 per cent in 2010 to 17.95 per cent in 2020. The census produced a mammoth amount of data that will be analysed in coming weeks. Broadly, it showed population declines in central and northeast provinces, but increases in eastern coastal and western areas. China nearing ‘turning point’ as slowing birth rate points to economic risks The numbers moving from rural to urban areas rose to above 63 per cent, closing in on the government’s goal of 65 per cent. The ratio of females to males also narrowed, a welcome shift for those worried about a gender imbalance in part brought about by the one-child policy that was replaced in 2016 by a two-child limit. Managing a nation as populous as China requires great insight and the census is a firm foundation. There are particular challenges when trying to ensure that the economy advances in the face of a slowdown in population growth. That means a fine balance between policy, development and resource demand.