Staring down growing external threats across the Taiwan Strait, the last thing Taipei needs is a Covid-19 outbreak to shake its domestic scene. Yet, that is exactly what is unfolding, and the timing could not be worse. As Taiwan’s attention turns inward to manage the new outbreak and a string of infrastructure disruptions, it will be increasingly vulnerable to continued pressure from Beijing. Taiwan’s previous deft pandemic response and domestic infrastructure stability have underpinned its resilience in handling increased Chinese threats and territorial incursions. Yet, surging Covid-19 cases, combined with power outages and dwindling water supplies, mean the coming weeks could be the greatest stress test Taipei has faced all year. With 333 new cases on Monday, 245 on Tuesday, and 267 domestic cases on Wednesday , Taiwan faces its biggest Covid-19 outbreak. The government has raised the alert to tier 3 of the four-tier system for the entire island. Given the pace of spreading infections, Lee Ping-ing of the Central Epidemic Command Centre has predicted cases could reach 3,000 within a month if effective measures aren’t swiftly taken. With the government changing conditions required to trigger Level 4 restrictions, lockdown-equivalent measures may be inevitable. Vaccination roll-outs are accelerating, but with one of the lowest vaccination rates in the developed world Taiwan has to catch up fast. It is racing to develop its own vaccine, but it will not be available until late July , according to last week’s announcement by President Tsai Ing-wen. This puts herd immunity out of reach in the near term. It also makes Taiwan highly vulnerable as it grapples with strains on critical infrastructure and industry, each pivotal to its national resilience against Beijing’s mounting coercion . Taiwan’s water shortages and power outages also threaten its readiness for any armed conflict with Beijing. The country is experiencing its worst drought in five decades, with many dams under 20 per cent capacity and several under 10 per cent. With no easy options, the government has enforced restrictions in several counties. It has turned off the taps on 74,000 hectares of farmland to keep water flowing to the semiconductor manufacturing industry, threatening food security. The semiconductor industry is most critical to Taiwan’s resilience. In lieu of a defence treaty with the United States, it is Taiwan’s greatest economic ace to encourage the US to intervene in the event of a Chinese invasion. The drought has exacerbated the global chip shortage, placing further pressure on Taiwan to deliver what the US needs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has announced plans to open a plant in Arizona, but to maintain the economic incentive for preservation of the status quo, it is in Taiwan’s interests to keep the bulk of production on the island. That means ensuring a water supply for the sector. Electricity supply is another area of concern after a nationwide blackout last week highlighted systemic vulnerabilities in the grid. That prompted nuclear power supporters to question the feasibility of phasing it out, a long-standing aim of the current administration. Considering that Taiwan imports 98 per cent of its energy resources, nuclear power has long been viewed as necessary for national security so the lights can stay on if Beijing instigates a naval blockade. An August referendum will bring the nuclear issue to a head, potentially reversing policy. This could further destabilise power, just when an aerial version of the blockade scenario is already playing out in the skies . Increasing Chinese intrusions are taking a psychological toll as well as depleting Taiwan’s resources as the air force scrambles jets in response. Attrition is clearly working, with the defence ministry recently saying it was conserving resources by using slower, less-fuel-intensive planes and radar to track Chinese planes . China’s grey-zone tactics are probing for any weaknesses. As Covid-19 cases climb, the PLA won’t shy away from pushing harder to identify new issues in Taiwan’s response as a result of the outbreak. As the Brookings Institute has noted, even a few cases can affect combat readiness since social distancing and quarantine hamper operations and training exercises. With Taiwan starting vaccinations for defence personnel this month, the race is on to keep Covid-19 out of its ranks. Ultimately, China’s flyovers intend to intimidate the public as much as the military. As analyst Denny Roy points out, since a direct attack is extremely risky, Beijing prefers a bloodless “war scare” to intimidate Taipei into submission. Last month, former defence minister Yang Nien-tsu said Chinese pressure was already eroding defence capabilities and morale. The public will be even more vulnerable to psychological pressure if Taiwan enters a prolonged lockdown, a situation that Beijing would surely exploit. To pull through, Taipei must hold to the good governance models that halted the pandemic earlier and find the strength to resist Chinese pressure. How Taiwan faces these external and internal tensions will define the depths of its national resilience and set the trajectory for the cross-strait stand-off well into the future. Liam Gibson is a Taipei-based freelance geopolitical analyst who mainly focuses on Indo-Pacific affairs. He also produces podcasts for think tanks and is the founder of Policy People, an online platform for think tank experts