Opinion | Climate change: the West’s energy transition narrative ignores the reality in Asia

Name: Coronavirus: blue skies over Chinese cities as Covid-19 lockdown temporarily cuts air pollution
Uploaded: 2021-07-15T19:30:08.000Z
Duration: 3 min 31 s
Description: Coronavirus: blue skies over Chinese cities as Covid-19 lockdown temporarily cuts air pollution

BP’s latest review of energy use has been presented as positive developments in carbon reduction. However, the facts remain that fossil fuels continue to provide most of the world’s energy needs and that developing Asia is driving demand

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A thermal coal yard in Huanghua port in Cangzhou city, Hebei province in 2020. Photo: Xinhua

Tilak K. Doshi

Published: 3:30am, 16 Jul 2021Updated: 3:30am, 16 Jul 2021

BP released its annual Statistical Review of World Energy last week, with updated data for 2020. As usual, the oil giant’s influential report card on energy use was accompanied by widespread media coverage.

The lead stories in news wires and major newspapers focused on two welcome aspects: how the Covid-19 pandemic drastically reduced energy demand (and hence carbon emissions) last year; and how rapidly solar and wind energy capacity grew. However, the extensive coverage was lacking when it came to the far more consequential realities: the continued dominance of fossil fuels and the role of developing countries – which account for more than 80 per cent of the global population – in the growth of energy demand.

As energy demand collapsed with the adoption of Covid-19 lockdowns around the world, 2020 saw the biggest fall in carbon dioxide emissions since World War II. This does put the world closer to the path needed to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius this century, the BP report said. But Spencer Dale, BP chief economist, noted in remarks released ahead of the review that the dip in energy demand did not reflect the “decisive shift” towards meeting climate goals backed by the Biden administration, the European Union and multilateral agencies including the International Energy Agency, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

While energy demand worldwide fell by 4.5 per cent in 2020, oil consumption fell even more steeply, by 9.3 per cent. This reflected the collapse in demand for transport fuels in particular.

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Coronavirus: blue skies over Chinese cities as Covid-19 lockdown temporarily cuts air pollution

In contrast, the report described the increase in wind and solar capacity as “colossal”. Dale said: “The increase in installed capacity last year was 50 per cent bigger than at any time seen in history, despite the world [being] in turmoil, despite the largest peacetime recession.” He seemed heartened when he said: “The trends we’re seeing here are exactly the trends we’d want to see as the world transitions to net zero...”

While much of the above seems consistent with the energy transition narrative, it is also akin to the tail wagging the dog. After decades of government mandates and hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies in Western Europe and North America, renewables (which include wind, solar and non-traditional biofuels) constituted a mere 5.7 per cent of global energy use in 2020. Fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) accounted for 83 per cent of global energy use.

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