How the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan raises the terrorism threat across South Asia

Reports show the Taliban are sheltering al-Qaeda affiliates and commanders, with a real danger of a swell in terrorist activity beyond the country
Surging radicalisation and space for Pan-Islamic terror groups stretching across the region could also threaten China

Brabim Karki

Published: 3:30am, 18 Aug 2021

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The Taliban have swept through most of Afghanistan in less than a week as US forces rushed to leave the country. Fighters have now taken over the presidential palace, and President Ashraf Ghani has fled abroad, leaving his government in ruins.

The re-emergence of the Taliban could once again create a grave security threat for Afghanistan, which would affect neighbouring countries and many parts of South Asia.

In April, US President Joe Biden declared that all US and Nato forces would leave Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks. The unilateral decision to quit the country gave Taliban leaders a chance to retake full control.

However, US officials have been shocked by the speed at which Taliban fighters have done so, as Afghan forces trained by the United States and other nations at a cost of billions of dollars just melted away.

With Taliban military advances, conflict cannot be contained. Several reports show the Taliban have been sheltering affiliates and commanders of al-Qaeda, leading to a real danger of a swell in terrorist activity beyond Afghanistan.

04:07

Taliban takes control of Afghan capital Kabul as President Ghani flees country

The return of Taliban rule is a headache for South Asia, given the threat of surging radicalisation and renewed space for Pan-Islamic terror groups in the region.

Similar scenarios played out after the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan in the 1980s, when the US-backed mujahideen defeated the Soviet Army, as well as after 2011 and the surge of al-Qaeda and Islamic State in Iraq.

The Taliban has a close connection with many terror groups that operate across the region, from Russia to India. It has the support of al-Qaeda, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin, Islamic State, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and Lashkar-e-Taiba.

Pakistan now fears a resurgence of the TTP, a group that has been blamed for thousands of civilian deaths in the country since the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. The surge of Taliban-affiliated groups is also a concern to non-Pashtun ethnic communities who live in areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

01:42

Taliban claims key border crossings in Afghanistan as US commander departs country

Intertribal conflicts on the Pakistan side may break out. People living in Balochistan in the southwest could again find themselves deprived of their agricultural lands and forced to leave the country.

Afghanistan also shares a border with China through Xinjiang province. There are reports that some Taliban leaders are sympathetic to Uygur Muslim groups that are opposed to China’s communist regime. Beijing is concerned that the Taliban surge in Afghanistan could potentially benefit the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.

New Delhi, meanwhile, is seeking to get its nationals and diplomats out of Afghanistan as quickly as possible, mindful also of the potential for the rise of Taliban leaders to aggravate the terrorist threat in India.

03:17

Why China is keeping a tight grip on Xinjiang

Smaller South Asian nations are likely to be affected by the Taliban’s re-emergence as well. Bangladesh is already facing a rise in fundamentalist Islamic nationalism, which began in the early 2010s with the Awami League.

Terrorist organisations like al-Qaeda and Isis have become bolder in their relations with local Bangladeshi groups, including Jund al-Tawheed Khalifa, AQIS, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, and Jumatul Mujahedeen Bangladesh. The Taliban surge could help these organisations create chaos in the country.

Nepal has been dealing with terrorism for some time, and the Taliban’s rise could add to leaders’ headaches. In 1999, an Indian Airlines flight from Nepal was hijacked by terrorists. When it landed in Afghanistan, the Taliban authorities offered to mediate between India and the hijackers. And, in 2016, 14 Nepali security guards were killed when Taliban militants attacked their minibus in Kabul.

Hundreds of thousands have been displaced in Afghanistan, and these people could now surge into other South Asian nations as refugees. Another refugee emergency could destabilise the region and beyond as people flee the imposition of the Taliban’s justice, and the overturning of Afghanistan’s democratic system.

The international community must come together to avert this disaster. All countries should support the United Nations’ demand for an immediate ceasefire. Afghanistan must be pulled from this disaster, and that will only be possible if all nations are on board.

Brabim Karki is an author and businessman based in Nepal