Opinion | 4 reasons the US and China are not destined for war

Name: Washington’s US$1.8 billion arms sale to Taiwan is first weapons deal of its kind in over 40 years
Uploaded: 2021-08-18T19:30:10.000Z
Duration: 2 min 28 s
Description: Washington’s US$1.8 billion arms sale to Taiwan is first weapons deal of its kind in over 40 years

As a growing chorus warns of a clash between the US and China, it is easy to believe war is inevitable

But while history suggests that rising powers will often clash with incumbent ones, there are important exceptions and unique present circumstances to consider

Reading Time:3 minutes

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US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman meets Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin on July 26. Photo: Xinhua

Charles C. KrulakandAlex Friedman

Published: 3:30am, 19 Aug 2021Updated: 10:22am, 19 Aug 2021

In the year 2034, the US and China become embroiled in a series of military conflicts that escalate into a devastating tactical nuclear war. Other countries get involved. Suddenly, the world is on the verge of World War III.

This is the scenario described in 2034: A Novel of the Next World War, an engrossing work of speculative fiction by Nato’s former supreme commander, James Stavridis, and Elliot Ackerman.

The book is part of a growing chorus warning that a clash between the current rising power and the incumbent one is almost unavoidable. Graham Allison of Harvard University has dubbed this phenomenon the Thucydides Trap, recalling the ancient Greek historian’s observation: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.”

Throughout history, when a rising power has challenged a ruling one, war has often been the result. But there are notable exceptions.

A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and a declining Britain a century ago. In today’s context, there are four compelling reasons to believe war between the US and China can be avoided.

02:28

Washington’s US$1.8 billion arms sale to Taiwan is first weapons deal of its kind in over 40 years

First and foremost, any military conflict between the two would quickly turn nuclear. Taiwan could easily become this century’s tripwire, just as the Fulda Gap in Germany was during the Cold War.

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