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My Take
Opinion
Alex Lo

My Take | China’s dollar diplomacy preferable to West’s military interventions

  • France, the European Union and the US are withdrawing their failed military interventions from the African Sahel region and Afghanistan. China is stepping up, but it’s doing so with capital investment and developmental aid – and in the case of the Taliban, even diplomatic recognition – rather than bullets and bombs

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Guinean special forces celebrate with Guineans waving the national flag during celebrations at the Palace of the People in Conakry, Guinea, on September 6. Photo: EPA-EFE
For years, I have left my shares in Chalco for dead. Then suddenly, in recent weeks, stocks of the Aluminum Corporation of China have started going through the roof. It turns out the military coup in Guinea has a lot to do with it. Who would have guessed? It has been a most educational experience.

That is, actually, one reason I play the stock market, even though unlike cleverer investors, I usually lose money, either a lot or a little (which for me is a win). But when you have skin in the game, the connections between economics, corporate actions and geopolitics become so much more vivid. I know, I know, there must be a cheaper way to get a proper education, one that doesn’t threaten your retirement.

Bauxite, you see, is the raw material for alumina, which in turn is used to produce aluminium. Guinea is the second-largest producer of bauxite, accounting for 22 per cent of world production. The global market is supposedly unnerved by the coup, which could disrupt production, hence the price volatility that sent aluminium prices to a 10-year high. Somehow, I have doubts about that explanation.
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The first priority of the coup plotters, I imagine, is to make sure production levels are maintained. Otherwise, what’s the point of staging a coup? You want to make sure the money flows into your pockets, instead of those of your former boss – that’s Military Coup 101. That’s why the Chinese are terribly unfazed, contrary to whatever you read in the international press about Chinese interests being exposed by the coup.

It’s true that China has a major stake in the country’s bauxite and iron ore production, just like it has similar investments across the Sahel, the vast region south of the Sahara. But, it’s only money. Worse comes to worst, you lose some investments. Don’t believe the international media about China in Africa; you just get the wrong impression while your information is usually put out of context.

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