My Take | Americans distrust each other more than Chinese
- If pundits want to ponder the potential impact of low-probability events, the possibility of a second civil war in the United States is far likelier than a political implosion in Beijing, that is, judging by the findings of numerous US national surveys
And in the same vein, former British diplomat Roger Garside has just published a book, China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom. In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Garside even admitted that “one-quarter of the book is semi-fictional”. Somehow, both men think such an unlikely outcome would enable China magically to make the transition to democracy. They may have gone a tad too far.
If such commentators are trying to contemplate the potential impact of low-probability events, it may be more worthwhile to consider the possibility of a second civil war in the US. This is, after all, not beyond the realm of imagination. In fact, many Americans themselves now think it’s a distinct possibility. It is certainly a much more likely outcome than a political implosion in Beijing.
In a 2021 national survey by pollster John Zogby, nearly half of the US public (16 per cent very likely and 30 per cent somewhat likely) thought the country would have another civil war, 42 per cent (24 per cent very unlikely and 18 per cent somewhat unlikely) did not think so; and 11 per cent of survey respondents were not sure.