The record numbers of People’s Liberation Army jets breaching Taiwan’s air defence identification zone in recent months are a less than subtle warning from Beijing to the secession-minded administration of the island’s leader, Tsai Ing-wen. As the so-called Double Tenth Day approaches, when Tsai will give a speech marking an anti-imperial revolt in China that is celebrated as a holiday, such military activity is likely to increase. What she says and does will be keenly watched; any effort to push for greater Taiwanese recognition internationally will raise cross-strait tensions. To avoid the risk of conflict, the United States has to similarly refrain from provocative remarks and actions. Beijing marked the founding of the People’s Republic of China last Friday by sending 38 fighter jets into the zone. The PLA went a step further on Monday with a further 52 warplanes, prompting the scrambling of Taiwanese jets and deployment of missiles. US President Joe Biden ’s administration called the flyovers “provocative” and said they risked leading to “miscalculation”. In an article in Foreign Affairs magazine, Tsai warned failure to defend Taiwan against China would be “catastrophic” for peace in East Asia. Taiwan comes under Chinese sovereignty, so such comments, coupled with regular American military drills near the island, are disingenuous. The US has not explicitly supported Taiwanese independence, but under former president Donald Trump and now Biden, it has been eroding the edges of its pledge to uphold the principle that there is only one China. Tsai has never recognised the 1992 consensus, on which the one-China principle is based. Her refusal, and that of her Democratic Progressive Party, is the reason for relations with Beijing having broken down and the lack of communication has increased tension. But the island’s opposition Kuomintang recognises the consensus, which is why President Xi Jinping, who is also general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, sent a congratulatory message to its newly elected chairman, Eric Chu Li-luan. In the message, Xi expressed hope the two parties would work together for the well-being of people on both sides of the strait, seek peace and strive for reunification of the nation. In his reply, Chu indicated aspirations for the sides to promote peace and stability and said he opposed independence for Taiwan. This is what Beijing expects; it is willing to engage with those who endorse the consensus. Tsai is taking Taiwan down a dangerous path. The lack of communication with Beijing and absence of a mechanism for building trust between the PLA and Taiwanese military are risking conflict. She has to watch her words and deeds.