My Take | China’s commitment to unify with Taiwan cannot be doubted
- While Washington and Taipei can always guess, how close to an outright declaration of independence would amount to a casus belli is entirely up to Beijing to decide
Nations, especially great powers, sometimes appear to commit to means that are disproportionate to the end goals. One example is risking nuclear war that could entail the extinction of the human race over limited regional conflicts, such as what had almost occurred several times during the Cold War. This is often characterised as irrational and denigrated as the fear of losing face or national prestige.
But if psychologists have taught that what looks rational may be irrational, it may also work the other way in politics. By threatening to do the irrational, you demonstrate total commitment, and so hope to avoid doing the unthinkable.
On October 1, Chinese forces dispatched 38 warplanes into Taiwan’s self-declared air defence identification zone (ADIZ). In total, over four days, nearly 150 aircraft were sent. It’s not that mainland China wants to start a war or threaten an invasion. It’s precisely to avoid one.
“To achieve the reunification of the motherland by peaceful means is most in line with the overall interests of the Chinese nation, including our compatriots in Taiwan,” said President Xi Jinping in a commemoration of the 110th anniversary of the 1911 Chinese revolution.
By implication, independence will be the end of peace.