Opinion | Why Germany’s coalition talks matter for China, Europe and the world

Three German political parties are negotiating a new coalition, which will have implications for Berlin’s foreign policy

The recent election indicated a relative political consensus on topics like global warming, but a sharper divergence over China and related human rights issues

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Election posters seen in Hamburg on August 31. A Germany “traffic light” coalition – led by the centre-left Social Democrats, with the pro-business Free Democrats and the Greens – could soon be driving important policy changes in Germany, Europe and beyond. Photo: Reuters

Published: 1:30am, 15 Oct 2021

With Germany taking over the G7 presidency in January, the three political parties negotiating a new coalition in Berlin are expected to begin formal talks next week – sooner than expected – to try to take up the reins of power before the end of the year.

Germany’s hosting of the Group of 7 in 2022 is not the only big, upcoming international event that is injecting urgency into the coalition negotiations as this autumn will also see the G20 summit in Rome and the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, in Glasgow.

While a new coalition is unlikely to be forged before those summits, which Angela Merkel is likely to attend in her role as caretaker chancellor, her expected replacement Olaf Scholz will want to ensure that he is in power in time to kick off his nation’s big G7 year.

The anticipated German “traffic light” coalition – led by the centre-left Social Democrats, with the pro-business Free Democrats and the Greens as junior partners – could soon be driving important policy changes.

While many expect the Greens, who placed third in last month’s election, to make a contribution to sustainability or environmental issues, it could be other issues such as China where they have an unexpected impact.

This is because this year’s election indicated a relative political consensus among the key parties on topics like global warming. However, there is a sharper divergence over China ahead of the 50th anniversary of bilateral ties next year, compared to the Merkel era, which could lead to a more conflictual policy, including on human rights and Xinjiang.

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