‘Strategic ambiguity’ too confusing for Biden
- Either the US president knows what he is talking about on Taiwan’s defence or he doesn’t; both possibilities are scary
America’s strategic ambiguity over Taiwan has become so ambiguous, it seems, that it confuses even its septuagenarian president and his defence chief.
And then, the day after that, the White House walked back on Biden’s statement, saying there was “no change” in Washington’s policy. Deja vu? Well, yes, Biden said the same thing in August, and the White House had to clarify that the old policy stayed.
What’s going on? Two possibilities: either Biden doesn’t know what he is talking about; or he actually does. The former would be a rich source for satire and comedy; the latter would be very scary because the South China Sea is already being turned into a powder keg. OK, the first possibility is also scary if the most powerful man in the world doesn’t know what he is doing. Alas, that wouldn’t be the first time the world has had to deal with that.
China’s commitment to unify with Taiwan cannot be doubted
Confused, perhaps, by the belligerence of his own administration, Biden goes overboard about America’s defence commitment with Taiwan. In reality, Washington still prefers the status quo – exactly what the White House has clarified – rather than encouraging the island to move towards independence and risk an all-out war. It just wants to exploit the Taiwan issue as one of myriad areas of contention to confront China. But that requires a delicate balancing act and the US president periodically trips over. The elderly tend to lose their balance sometimes.
On the other hand, Biden may know exactly what he is doing. On paper, “one China” remains for Washington. But there is mounting evidence that the US is happy to encourage Taiwan to make its long-dreaded move, if still gradually, by stepping up its defence commitment to the island.
Strategic ambiguity originally had the goal of discouraging both unification by a mainland invasion and a unilateral declaration of independence by the island, hence the so-called status quo. Now, who knows where we are? With all the military hardware from the US and its allies moving in and out of the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, Washington’s strategic intention doesn’t look so ambiguous any more.
