South China Morning Post
Advertisement
Advertisement
Prime Minister of New Zealand and Apec 2021 chair Jacinda Ardern attends the Voices of the Future event for youth delegates, in Wellington, New Zealand, on November 10. Photo: EPA-EFE
Opinion
Andrew Hammond
Andrew Hammond

US-China rivalry is the biggest threat to Apec cooperation

  • As it moves away from security preoccupations such as Afghanistan, the US is diverting attention and resources to shaping the regional order through bodies such as Apec
  • This is a strategy China has already adopted through the Belt and Road Initiative and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
Andrew Hammond
Andrew Hammond
Why you can trust SCMP
While much of the globe is focused on the COP26 climate summit in Scotland, a country at the other end of the world is hosting another key meeting this week – the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum leaders’ session, with US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping due to meet virtually.

This year’s Apec, chaired by New Zealand, will in the words of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern seek to “chart a path to recovery out of a once-in-a-century crisis” caused by the pandemic. This has been the biggest economic and political shock since World War II for Apec’s nearly 3 billion population who generate around 60 per cent of global GDP.

Ardern will seek to promote an inclusive, sustainable and resilient recovery and, after around 340 preliminary Apec meetings, progress has been made. This includes an agreement to a five-year programme of economic reforms that will kick-start growth, and create new jobs.

Apec members have reportedly agreed this week to reduce or eliminate many tariffs and border hold-ups on vaccines, masks and other medical products important to fighting the coronavirus.
New Zealand also said on Wednesday that the bloc had agreed to reiterate a “strong stance” against vaccine nationalism, are committed to tackling climate change post-COP26, and progressing on trade too.
A handout photo made available by Apec New Zealand, the host of the Apec forum this year, shows Chinese President Xi Jinping (top left) speaking on a screen via video link at the Apec CEO Summit in Wellington, New Zealand, on November 11. Photo: EPA-EFE
However, important as these commitments are, the sessions on November 12 and 13 are likely to show yet again that Apec’s consensus-driven approach is creaking. Even before the pandemic, the Apec consensus model was strained, with the group unable to agree on a communique at its 2018 meeting, while the 2019 session was cancelled due to protests.
Ardern’s efforts to promote a pan-Apec approach are being undercut by intra-forum squabbles, especially between the United States and China, but also Taipei and Beijing, which have both put in applications to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Beijing opposes Taipei’s bid.
It is US-China bilateral rivalry, however, which could most impede Apec. One manifestation of this tension is different views over the US offer to host Apec in 2023, which would be the first time since 2011. Both China and Russia are cool on the US proposal, with neither yet agreeing to it, creating an unusual situation for the bloc which usually decides on venues well in advance.

The US desire to host the 2023 event reflects the White House’s broader strategy of diverting attention and resources to the region as it moves away from other geographical security preoccupations such as Afghanistan.

Biden, just like Beijing, wants to shape the regional order, in the US’ case, to demonstrate its commitment to a free and open Asia-Pacific. What is being referred to here is the nascent US strategy to shape the Apec landscape.

As the Biden team flexes its muscles, it is aware of the Chinese juggernaut being mobilised by Xi in the form of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the proposed Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP).

An East-Asian pact and FTAAP have been under discussion since at least 2004, and assumed new importance for Beijing since the inception of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which former US president Barack Obama championed.

11:11

CPTPP could become game changer and supplant 'out-of-date' WTO, after mainland China, Taiwan apply

CPTPP could become game changer and supplant 'out-of-date' WTO, after mainland China, Taiwan apply

While Xi has said that the FTAAP does not “go against existing free trade arrangements”, at the heart of the debate on these issues are contrasting US and Chinese visions of the regional order. Beijing’s push for the Belt and Road Initiative, RCEP and FTAAP provide a non-US alternative model for economic integration shaped by Beijing with its interests centre stage.

It is in this context that the Biden team is beginning to set out its own stall for shaping the regional order. This includes the new Aukus alliance, comprising Australia, the US and the United Kingdom.

Australia-France ties will heal over mutual interest in Indo-Pacific: analysts

A key remaining question for US allies therefore is whether the Biden team will now step up to the plate and develop a comprehensive, well-funded grand strategy to embed US influence. In the post-war period, the US has undertaken a global institutional-building project to encourage the growth of democracy and open markets across the world, including Apec itself.

Yet, with Trump pulling the plug on US participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a vacuum now exists. The danger for Washington is that, unless Biden acts decisively, irresistible momentum could now build for a regional architecture which allows Beijing to assume the upper hand, damaging US influence not just with local allies, but potentially beyond, too.

Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics
Post