Why a third term for President Xi Jinping makes sense for pragmatic China

Amid US tensions and increasing international hostility, and with domestic issues to tackle including an economic transition and inequality, Xi provides the stability China needs

S. George Marano

Published: 6:45am, 28 Nov 2021

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The Central Committee’s sixth plenary session in Beijing paved the way for a third term for President Xi Jinping. Some Western commentators see this as a power grab or a way to seek leadership for life, but the truth is much more complicated.

China’s constitution, which had previously allowed only two terms for sitting leaders, was changed in 2018 amid overwhelming support from the National People’s Congress. This was more an indication of the expected geopolitical turbulence than self-centric opportunism.

Indeed, the Communist Party’s pragmatic approach to stable leadership explains why Xi will remain in power, given the multiple risks, both internal and external, facing China.

The moves paving the way for a third term come on the back of Xi’s impressive achievements at home and abroad. Domestically, major accomplishments include continued economic growth, the eradication of corruption and environmental achievements.

Internationally, Xi has transformed China into a superpower in the making, courtesy of his diplomacy and signature Belt and Road Initiative. Such is his popularity and reverence at home that he now sits alongside Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.

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From 2008-2016, a distracted US allowed China’s unhindered rise, but things have changed. While the 2011 pivot to Asia under president Barack Obama was the genesis of today’s containment strategy, Donald Trump’s presidency took things to a new level, with increasingly visceral language and confrontational action.

As we look to the US’ military defeats in Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam, these losses should not obscure Washington’s unblemished record of victories against rising powers, including Germany (twice), imperial Japan and the Soviet Union.

Though the US may be in decline, it is naive to think that the drive, resources and knowledge it accumulated with the defeat of those powers could not be employed against China.

When China’s 2025 plan announced a strategy to achieve superiority in hi-tech industries, it identified for the US which of China’s chokepoints to manipulate. And Washington has done just that, with the most visible casualty being Huawei, with Western countries banning its 5G network equipment.

Though Trump has exited the White House, his strategy of containment and rollback remains very much alive under the Biden administration, albeit wrapped in a silk scarf.

Furthermore, Beijing can expect little respite from the US and its allies. The Aukus alliance, along with the US and its supporters’ renewed commitment to Taiwan’s defence, has set the scene for increasing hostilities over the next few decades.

Buttressing these existential threats are domestic issues that require constant vigilance. Slowing economic growth, rising inequality and an economic transition towards greater value-added production, along with tensions in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, are just some of the many problems plaguing Beijing.

07:02

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One should also remember the mammoth task the Communist Party has of governing a population of 1.4 billion.

Considering the need for stability in the face of external hostilities, growing internal issues and the complexity of the Chinese nation, a new leader at this critical time in China’s global trajectory would be too much of a risk for the Communist Party to consider. One can see why the most rational choice is for Xi to retain his leadership.

With the Chinese body politic fond of studying external models of success, Vladimir Putin’s Russia shows how centralised leadership and a strong grasp on the levers of power can reverse one’s fortunes.

Putin has had direct and indirect control of Russia for over 20 years, overcoming civil conflict and economic, military and diplomatic coercion from the West. Under his leadership, Russia has been slowly and meticulously transformed from a crumbling economic mess into a great power again. This example would not have been lost on leaders in Beijing.

Is Putin looking to hand over power and step aside like Deng Xiaoping?

Finally, there is the pragmatism of the Chinese political system. The US system of governance, with its concrete set of rules especially for presidential terms, is very much process-driven. China’s, on the other hand, is outcome-oriented, with the dexterity and agility to override constitutional requirements when necessary.

Given Washington’s history of defeating great powers and its current focus on China, a change in Chinese leadership at this crucial moment could be detrimental to the nation’s interests, considering the risks involved. With China’s pragmatic approach and the overarching need for stability in leadership, Xi remaining in power is the only rational option.

S. George Marano holds a PhD from the School of Management at RMIT University, Australia, and has an MBA and Master of Commerce from RMIT University