Opinion | Asean running out of time to recast role as buffer in US-China great power competition
- Asean’s chronic inability to speak with one voice leaves the South China Sea an arena for growing friction between the US and China
- It can still play an important role, but it no longer enjoys the luxury of time in establishing itself as an effective geostrategic buffer
As US-China strategic competition intensifies, the geopolitical buffer Asean has instituted in the past three decades is rapidly shrinking.
Since the end of the Cold War, Asean has taken great pains to cultivate ties with individual major players, so they develop vested interests in the region’s stability while enabling Asean to avoid taking sides among competing powers – a strategy characterised by Asia observers as one of omni-enmeshment, hedging or double binding. This strategy has achieved remarkable success in bringing peace to the region and won Asean a reputation as a bridge between great powers and an institutional buffer in geopolitics.
But with the return of great power competition and the formation of groupings such as the Quad, Asean is struggling to maintain relevance in the regional architecture. Former Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa noted at a recent South China Sea conference that minilateral groupings such as Aukus and the Quad should serve as a “wake-up call” for Asean – if it shows signs of irrelevance, then “security will be sought elsewhere”.
Asean needs to maintain its relevance by repositioning itself between the great powers as a bridge and a geopolitical buffer. An Asean-centric buffer also serves the US and China’s interests.
