Opinion | Will US shadowboxing with China in Southeast Asia reap rewards in 2022?

In 2021, the US has reset frayed relations with Asean, institutionalised defence and strategic cooperation with fellow Indo-Pacific powers, and effectively countered China’s ‘vaccine diplomacy’ in Asia

But the Biden administration may end up disappointing its regional allies if it fails to follow through on its hyperactive diplomacy next year

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Published: 9:15am, 27 Dec 2021

“Superpowers don’t bluff,” Antony Blinken once said during his stint as US president Barack Obama’s deputy national security adviser. A rising star within the US defence establishment, Blinken believed America’s global power rests on a healthy balance between proactive diplomacy and willingness to deploy force when necessary.

However, the former US president failed to heed Blinken’s advice in making the momentous decision not to order, without Congressional approval, a military strike against the Syrian regime for alleged use of chemical weapons.

Nor did Obama make any decisive response after China began militarising reclaimed islands across the South China Sea, after President Xi Jinping had told the US president the country had no intention of doing so.

As US President Joseph Biden’s “alter ego”, and America’s most senior cabinet member and diplomat, Blinken has finally had the chance to directly oversee his country’s foreign policy. Under his watch, the US has engaged in high-stakes shadowboxing with China, especially in Southeast Asia.

Thanks to its hyperactive diplomacy over the past year, the US has managed to reset frayed relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, institutionalise defence and strategic cooperation with fellow Indo-Pacific powers, and effectively counter China’s “vaccine diplomacy” in Asia.

The Biden administration, however, risks squandering its early gains in its first year if it fails to follow through on its pledge to push forward with a comprehensive economic deal and establish an “integrated deterrence” strategy in the Indo-Pacific.