My Take | US is biting off more than it can chew over Taiwan and Ukraine
- The United States and some of its allies, and Taiwan and Ukraine, have been pushing each other into confronting Russia and China, and finding it increasingly difficult to back down. But in time, Washington is likely to realise only ‘limited sovereignty’ for Ukraine and limited government for Taiwan can avoid war
One must wonder how seriously presidents Volodymyr Zelensky and Tsai Ing-wen take Washington’s word for it. The problem is not only that America’s security guarantees aren’t what they used to be, but that both are clearly asking what Washington is unwilling to give.
The big question is often understood to be Washington’s willingness – or not – to go to war for Ukraine and Taiwan, even at the risk of spilling American blood and risking a regional conflagration in eastern Europe and East Asia. But this may be too simplistic.
The real problem is that Ukraine wants full and unconditional recognition to be treated as a full sovereign state, with secure borders; and Taiwan wants something similar, even if it is ready to concede to using diplomatic words or terms that may fall short of the literal meaning of full sovereignty.
Despite lip service, it seems clear Washington is not ready to give Ukraine such recognition and acknowledgement of that status. And it has, on record and repeatedly, reaffirmed its commitment to the one-China policy, however this vague doctrine is interpreted differently by various state-level actors.