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China's population
OpinionComment
Paul Yip
Paul Yip

Opinion | China can learn to live with its shrinking population, but it can’t stop the trend

  • Changing mindsets among young couples and the high economic costs of raising a family are driving China’s population growth slowdown
  • The right technological advances, government policies and commitment to preserving the environment and people’s well-being can slow the decline

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Paul Yip
The latest figures from mainland China show that population growth has slowed, and the country’s overall population could start to decline very soon. China is still the world’s most populous country, with more than 1.4 billion people, but births fell from 12 million in 2020 to 10.62 million last year despite population control policies being further relaxed.
Despite the government promoting a three-child policy with more generous benefits, China’s birth rate fell to a record low of 7.52 births per 1,000 people last year, down from 8.52 in 2020. This continued decline almost certainly stems from a changing mindset among young couples and the high economic costs of raising a family in modern China, with some young people preferring to join the “lying flat” movement rather than getting married.

Analysis shows that the impact of fewer people getting married and more delaying marriage has a much larger effect on total births than small family size.

Also, encouraging married couples to have their first child is far more important than asking those with two children to have a third, since the latter has less effect and is more difficult. The emphasis should be on getting young people married and encouraging couples to have their first child.

However, the likelihood of people getting married at a relatively young age has decreased significantly in the past 40 years. In 1982, the average age at first marriage for a man was 25 .5 years; for women, it was 22.8 years. The median age of marriage has risen since then, with the proportion of single young people growing steadily higher.

07:02

China tackles challenges posed by its ageing population

China tackles challenges posed by its ageing population
As a result, the average household size on the mainland has shrunk from 3.96 in 1990 to 2.62 in 2020. This phenomenon could be why Pope Francis recently said couples who have pets rather than children are “selfish”, calling on people to have more children in the face of slowing population growth and lamenting Italy’s declining birth rate as a “tragedy”.
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