Opinion | Ukraine and Taiwan tensions: no rational US leader wants war, but could America be dragged into one?

On all counts, the costs of armed conflict far outweigh any benefits, especially with the US still reeling from its shambolic Afghanistan withdrawal

But war is irrational, and miscalculations and any attempt by a smaller power to ‘free ride’ on the US security umbrella could lead to accidents

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Members of Ukraine’s Territorial Defence Forces, volunteer military units of the Armed Forces, train in a city park in Kyiv, Ukraine, on January 22. Photo: AP

Published: 3:30am, 29 Jan 2022Updated: 5:14am, 29 Jan 2022

As war drums are being beaten over Ukraine and the Taiwan Strait, what are the economic and diplomatic options available to all parties?

“Jaw, jaw is better than war, war” is a quote often attributed to Winston Churchill. But why is Britain today more willing to send arms to Ukraine, when France and Germany seem more keen on diplomatic negotiations? One possible answer is the further you are from the conflict front line, the braver you are in your talk.

War should be the furthest thing from the mind of any rational global leader faced with the major challenges of climate disaster, economic recession and inequalities. We need time and peace to sort out the damage to health and wealth wrought by the pandemic.

If nations are to abide by the carbon emissions commitments they made at the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow, we have a lot of work to do to get to net zero. Since war is energy consuming and carbon emitting, it will only accelerate human and planetary destruction.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pose before their talks over Ukraine, in Geneva on January 21. Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry/dpa

But war is not often rational and could be sparked by accidents or pure miscalculations. As Rand Corporation’s recent analysis on great-power rivalry suggests, a stable rivalry has two defining characteristics: mutual acceptance of a shared status quo and a resilient equilibrium to absorb shocks. Both conditions are shaky in the near term.