How Hong Kong’s ‘zero-Covid’ failures are a chance to rethink and win the war

‘Zero-Covid’ has always been more of a short-term objective than a long-term plan. As Omicron pokes holes in Hong Kong’s defences, the government must adapt to the reality of a Covid-19 world

Robin Hibberd

Published: 6:45am, 9 Feb 2022

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For well over a year, we existed in an almost Covid-19-free bubble while the pandemic ravaged the world beyond our borders. With Omicron, that has all changed.

Now we wait each afternoon for the government to update us on the latest in Hong Kong’s battle with Covid-19. And we listen anxiously for hints as to how our lives might be further affected by lockdowns, closures and social distancing restrictions.

Our parents and grandparents would probably recognise this daily routine from having gathered around the radio for news of victories and defeats during the second world war. Their attention would have been particularly rapt in the days following the allied invasion of Normandy. It’s my sincere hope that, with the events of the past few weeks, our own version of the D-Day invasion is now under way in Hong Kong.

D-Day was the beginning of the end of the war in Europe. Our fifth wave has the potential to be a similar watershed for Hong Kong. But our leadership must understand that with Covid-19, we face more than a battle for the beaches directly in front of us. We are in a war.

Winning a protracted war, as opposed to a single battle, takes strategy and planning. Winning requires a plan to achieve one or more long-term goals under uncertain conditions. And a good strategy requires logic, imagination and flexibility to achieve defined long-term goals in a dynamic world.

Our government has yet to articulate any such strategy to succeed against Covid-19. And Covid has shown it cannot be defeated by short-term tactics designed to quell the latest wave of infection.

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“Zero-Covid” – or a “dynamic zero infection” approach, as it is now termed by the government – was never a strategy. Creating conditions for an open border with the mainland always looked more like an isolated short-term objective than a considered long-term plan.

And zero-Covid never embodied any realistic plan to address the long-term needs of Hong Kong residents. As a plan, it ignored the fact that we live in a world where Covid-19 is now endemic. And, as a consequence, it has failed. Reality kept getting in the way as recurring infections prevented quarantine-free movement from actually happening.

As it turns out, zero-Covid was a dangerous distraction as well. The single-minded pursuit of it has served to distract our leadership from developing and pursuing a realistic longer-term Covid-19 management strategy.

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Most glaringly, it created conditions for an inexcusable failure to protect the most vulnerable in Hong Kong. We are now facing a fifth wave with less than a quarter of the residents of aged care facilities in the city vaccinated.

We must now live with the mistakes that have been made. This said, we should also acknowledge that Hong Kong’s handling of the pandemic, though far from perfect, has been less of a shambles than in many jurisdictions. What matters more than apportioning blame or kudos for what’s past is where we go next.

The authorities can start by publicly acknowledging what now seems obvious: Hong Kong is going to have to learn how to live in a world with Covid-19, and stop pretending it can live in a world without it. This is an important change in mindset from which logical and consistent long-term plans can flow.

With a new mindset, we will be able to set long-term priorities and articulate plans to pursue them. Universal vaccination, or as near to that as possible, seems an obvious objective that should be a top priority.

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Vaccination is probably the most critical lever in reducing negative health outcomes. We need to get serious about vaccination. Gentle encouragement with no time frames has not worked.

Another priority should be the facilitation of large-scale testing. The experience of other countries during Omicron has shown that easy access to testing is a critical resource in the management of outbreaks.

We also need to look out across the world and learn from strategic successes and failures elsewhere. We need to adapt these lessons to Hong Kong’s circumstances and then execute.

And we need broader input into creating and implementing long-term plans. Where are the voices of psychologists, economists, business representatives and other stakeholders in setting the agenda for our city to succeed in a Covid-19 world?

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The thinking of our leadership needs to be raised above the day-to-day managing of the latest outbreak.

This fifth wave has brought some positive signs of change, even if a real strategy remains elusive. By necessity, our government’s approach is becoming more flexible and adaptive.

In recent weeks, the 21-day quarantine has been reduced. Asymptomatic and mild cases will be sent to government quarantine, instead of hospital. Home quarantine is being considered for close contacts, and may need to be extended to the infected in time. Testing is ramping up, as is access to rapid testing.

It’s time to take our heads out of the sand of Covid denial. We now need to openly acknowledge that Covid-19 is not going away any time soon – and that our battle with this fifth wave will not win the war.

There is no time like the present to seize this opportunity to realign our thinking. With an inclusive, deliberate and resourceful strategy, Hong Kong can adapt and live with this pandemic. With forward thinking, a positive vision of Hong Kong’s future is within our grasp.

Robin Hibberd is a financial services executive and long-time resident of Hong Kong. He is a former president of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong