Why viewing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a tyrant’s master plan is naive

Moscow’s declaration of war is a product of geography, history and great power rivalry, and must be understood in the context of an international relations system motivated by self-interest
Refusing to be clear-eyed about Russia’s security interests could result in the country reacting with overwhelming force

S. George Marano

Published: 1:30am, 15 Mar 2022

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With Moscow’s war on Kyiv now into its third week, an asymmetry in power is in place with Russia advancing steadily and clinically against an outmatched Ukraine, taking out military assets and their supporting infrastructure. This war is very much the product of geography, history and great power rivalry.

Though the notion of national sovereignty is well established, the reality is that international relations are built around power and self-interest. Critically examining this phenomenon is vital to understanding the sequence of events and finding a peaceful resolution to this conflict.

A time lapse of Russia’s military advance shows this was no last-minute decision. The approach and seized territories are strategic to Russian interests, showing the capture of a sizeable portion of eastern Ukraine while moving westwards to create a pincer formation. Additionally, there looks to have been a complete takeover of the Azov Sea.

We can expect Russia to pursue a short, intense military battle that decapitates Ukraine militarily, spooks Nato and the West, and pushes Kyiv to the negotiating table under duress. Ukraine will have to absorb these attacks, mount an insurgency that bleeds Moscow dry and hope for more substantive help from the West.

Whichever side can reach these goals first will shift the power dynamic in its favour at the expense of the other. Ultimately, though, both sides are the losers.

As the war drags on, Russia will always be the loser in a public relations battle, given the visceral international response to its attack among all mediums of mass communication. We are seeing an outpouring of solidarity with Ukraine and equal scorn poured on Russia, and in particular Russian President Vladimir Putin. Of course, this kind of contempt for Moscow has been around for a long time.

Finland model offers pragmatic way forward for Ukraine and Russia

Overall, we should view this invasion as a collapse of diplomacy. This failure needs to be seen through an objective lens that examines the causal effects of what we are seeing today. To assume that Russia’s actions are just the product of a bloodthirsty tyrant is a form of naivety.

How did we get here? Ukraine’s right to sovereignty and self-determination can be seen as clashing with Russia’s sphere of influence and security interests. In theory, Kyiv is free to choose who it allies with and in what capacity. However, the reality is very different as its geography has made it a geopolitical pawn in a greater game.

02:54

China’s delicate position on Russia-Ukraine crisis and its opposition to Western sanctions

The hard truth is that the rules of the United Nations are, in reality, voluntary and our system of international relations is anarchic, meaning the powerful rule and the powerless accept. It is Darwinism at its finest with no room for morals, ethics and benevolence, just strategic self-interest.

This explanation does not seek to justify Russia’s actions against Ukraine but realistically portrays the consequence of power. History is littered with examples of this phenomenon.

Looking through the lenses of game theory, realist international relations theory and legacy issues stemming from World War II, Russia’s perception of encroachment by Nato into Ukraine was always likely to elicit the turn of events we are seeing today.

The transatlantic security alliance’s eastward push and the subsequent reaction by Russia was foreseen by the likes of George Kennan and Henry Kissinger, whose strategies of containment have been credited with bringing down the Soviet Union. Add John Mearsheimer’s prophetic words in 2014, predicting this crisis after the revolution in Kyiv, and this war’s timing was not a question of if, but when.

Therefore, we need to be honest about Russia’s security interests. The consequence of such neglect, much as with all powers past and present, will mean Russia could retaliate with overwhelming force, as was the case in Grozny during the Chechen civil war.

Why a military offensive was always Russia’s Plan B

Any escalation that seriously threatens Russia would result in greater death and destruction. With Ukraine standing alone in its defence, pressure is mounting for the United States and its allies to project more substantive force than just applying sanctions.

Though there has been no direct intervention by the West, except for providing Ukraine with hardware and intelligence, we can never rule out its involvement. If this happens and Moscow is pushed into a corner, we could be closer to mutually assured destruction than many people think. It is worth remembering that what is rational is subjective and beholden to circumstances.

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Ukrainian forces train with newly delivered anti-tank weapons

Finally, the economic fallout of this war is expected to last longer and is already reverberating across the globe, as can be seen in oil prices. The weaponising of trade and currency is set to further destabilise our economic order and global supply chains.

As Russia is a key producer and exporter of oil, gas and other commodities, this war and the expected tit-for-tat sanctions will further hamper the global recovery, especially amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.

Russia’s war on Ukraine cannot be analysed just from the events of the past few weeks. With Russia advancing through Ukraine’s territory, a balanced, open and critical conversation about international relations, the security concerns of all stakeholders and Ukraine’s sovereignty and right to self-determination is vital.

Elevating the legitimate interests of all parties will not only help stop the war but go a long way to preventing any future ones.

S. George Marano holds a PhD from the School of Management at RMIT University, Australia, and has an MBA and Master of Commerce from RMIT University