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Visitors look at a model of the quantum communication satellite Mozi in Wuzhen, Zhejiang province, in November 2020. Photo: Costfoto/Barcroft Media via Getty Images
Opinion
Megha Pardhi and Arjun Gargeyas
Megha Pardhi and Arjun Gargeyas

How emerging technologies are driving China’s readiness for modern warfare

  • China’s armed forces have started embracing emerging tech with an eye on closing the gap in military power with the US
  • Dual-use technologies such as AI and big data have been incorporated into military strategy and will play an important role in China’s future plans
In this year’s annual session of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang presented a finance report with an estimated 1.45 trillion yuan (US$230 billion) set aside for defence spending in 2022.
Although that figure is an increase on last year, it is still less than the US military budget, which is expected to top US$770 billion. This translates into a significant gap in US and Chinese military power. As a result, China’s military modernisation and efforts to leverage technology in warfare have so far been directed to reduce this gap.
Thus, Beijing is working to incorporate modern technology into the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). With the development of space and electronic warfare capabilities over the past two decades, China’s armed forces have started to embrace critical and emerging technologies.

The 2010s saw the military focus on developing warfare capabilities specific to the digital and information age. This is evident from the 2013 Science of Military Strategy and the 2015 white paper on military strategy, which specifically mentioned outer space, electromagnetic space and cyberspace.

This led to the creation of the Strategic Support Force, a branch of the PLA dedicated to cyber warfare, electronic warfare and using other technology for military operations.

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Mighty Dragon: China’s upgraded J-20 stealth fighter

Mighty Dragon: China’s upgraded J-20 stealth fighter
Shashoujian refers to the Chinese strategic concept focused on creating “assassin’s mace” or “silver bullet” technologies that can reduce the gap between US and Chinese military power. These efforts have manifested themselves in policies, directions and plans that push for the development of dual-use technologies.

Two terms – “informationisation” and “intelligentisation” – reflect the significance of technology to the Chinese military. “Informatisation” refers to the use of new information and communication technologies. Its application in the military also overlaps with the goals of digitalisation of the military.

“Intelligentisation” refers to the use of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum and edge computing, augmented or virtual reality and others. To put it simply, intelligentisation can be viewed as the next step after informatisation.

An increasing emphasis on emerging technology is evident in the evolution of China’s military-strategic guidelines. The 1993 guidelines mention “local wars under modern, high-technology conditions” while the 2004 guidelines mention “local wars under informationised conditions”. The most recent guidelines, in 2015, focus largely on preparing to fight and win “informationised local wars”.

PLA moves 300,000 troops from non-combat units to frontline roles: source

The use of emerging technologies such as AI and big data in the military has also been incorporated into the 14th five-year plan. Including “intelligentised” warfare goals in the five-year plan indicates the urgency Beijing places on developing such capabilities.
Last December, Beijing submitted a position paper on regulating the military applications of artificial intelligence to the sixth review conference of the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons. Along with a similar paper in 2018, it can be seen as Beijing’s formal acknowledgement of AI as a technology capable of transforming the international security paradigm.

The development of offensive and defensive capabilities is an important part of Beijing’s plan to modernise the PLA. Writers within the PLA frequently discuss various aspects of intelligent warfare, which demonstrates the importance of emerging technology in the eyes of Chinese military researchers. Chinese scholars also frequently write about their vision of futuristic warfare.

Beijing is now exploring next-generation operational concepts for “intelligentised warfare”. These include attrition warfare by intelligent robotic swarms, cross-domain mobile warfare, AI-based space confrontation and cognitive control operations.

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China’s most advanced amphibious assault ship likely to be deployed in disputed South China Sea

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The PLA has reportedly funded projects that focus on applications of machine learning for strategic and tactical recommendations, AI-enabled war gaming for training, and social media analysis. Applications of emerging technologies in integrated battlefield command systems, unstaffed combat systems, impenetrable communication and real-time battlefield simulations are also part of the discourse of military technologies among PLA writers.
With China making giant strides in the field of quantum technology, concerns over potential military weaponising have emerged. The reported successes of the quantum radar project, as well as the quantum submarine detector project, have significant implications for the current military technology landscape.
These applications can provide leverage to the Chinese armed forces in future deployment of intelligentised warfare. The key is that many of these developments are dual-use technologies, for use both in military and civilian fields.

Take building impenetrable communications for example. Recently, scholars from the National University of Defence Technology highlighted “strong connections” as a factor required to win intelligent warfare.

In a separate development earlier in 2021, a team of Chinese scientists led by Pan Jianwei demonstrated an integrated quantum communication network. China’s progress in quantum communication has increased the feasibility of creating an “unhackable” communication network.

These are all steps towards building an all-encompassing, impenetrable communication network that can be leveraged in case of conflict.

It is clear to the Chinese military apparatus that Beijing will have to rely on emerging technologies to close the gap to US military power. This is evident in the reorganisation of the PLA under President Xi Jinping. At the heart of this effort lies the focus on critical and emerging technologies.

As the world moves further into the digital age, the emphasis on dual-use applications of emerging technologies will keep growing. Thus, Beijing sees the need to develop military competency in critical and emerging technologies to gain an advantage over its adversaries.

Megha Pardhi is a research analyst (China Studies) at the Takshashila Institution, a public policy think tank in Bangalore.

Arjun Gargeyas is a research analyst with the High Tech Geopolitics Programme at the Takshashila Institution

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