Editorial | Virus forecasts all add up for greater need for Hong Kong to remain extra vigilant
- Whatever university studies say on the projected number of infections and deaths from the city’s fifth wave, there is some way to go before we can breathe a sigh of relief
It may have appeared scaremongering when a University of Hong Kong study warned that the Omicron-fuelled fifth wave could peak with a daily 28,000 infections by the end of this month. That was just five weeks ago when the daily numbers – 986 infections and a third death – were just a fraction of what we have seen in recent days.
Looking back, the projection may even seem conservative. Whether a greater sense of alertness could have curbed the spread is perhaps hypothetical, but the worse-than-expected outbreak certainly demands heightened vigilance.
This is especially important if the worst is yet to come. If the latest projection by Chinese University is any guide, the fifth wave may kill more than 7,000 people and infect as many as 5 million, or two-thirds of the population.
But ultimately, official figures may be around 1.6 million, as researchers believe many cases cannot be identified. Only by late June or early July will daily infections ease to three digit figures, according to the study.
If the grim picture is again greeted with scepticism, it is because the city managed to keep infections and fatalities at relatively low levels in the first four waves. But that is also the reason authorities were blinded by complacency when the Omicron variant triggered alarm bells elsewhere late last year.
Recent daily figures have resulted in different interpretations. Some experts say the outbreak is reaching a plateau while others see signs of a turnaround.