China must prepare to move on from its zero-Covid policy after Hong Kong’s terrible lesson

Like Hong Kong, the mainland’s hospital system and society are not yet prepared to handle an explosion of Covid-19 cases
In the long run, however, Beijing must look to live with the virus on its own terms, or risk seeing its Covid-19 accomplishments coming to naught, like Hong Kong’s

Lee Jersey Wang

Published: 6:45am, 18 Mar 2022

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For two years, China has forged its own path in its absolute commitment to a zero-Covid policy. This reflects Beijing’s ability to eliminate Covid-19 from within its borders and prevent millions of deaths when most countries, unable to do anything similar, decided to abandon such attempts.

The arrival of the highly contagious but less lethal Omicron variant, combined with the increased availability of effective therapeutics and vaccines, should prompt a reassessment of the cost-to-benefit ratio of the different Covid-19 approaches.

Most people have probably heard the arguments over the past two years, especially following the roll-out of vaccines, that it is time to live with the virus, we cannot keep out the world forever, etc.

I won’t seek to make those arguments here, or the case that the economic pain from lockdowns and indirect deaths justify a quick return to normalcy – these have been made many times already.

What I do want to say is that while this policy direction is ultimately correct (even the most extreme Covid-19 hawks do not seek permanent isolation and lockdown), we cannot make policy based simply on slogans and stances.

03:46

No respite for Covid cases in Hong Kong as infections surge in mainland China

Hong Kong’s terrible situation provides useful lessons. It also stuck stubbornly to a zero-Covid policy, painstakingly defeating each previous Covid-19 wave. The economic costs are clear, with more people, both Hongkongers and expatriates, leaving as a result of its isolationist Covid-19 policy than because of the much-dramatised “national security law exodus”.

Hong Kong’s economy and stock market have stagnated because its fundamental function as a financial gateway between China and the West could not work as well when quarantine measures made international travel impractical.

Its “side job” as a tourism centre has suffered even more. Hong Kong has been stuck in the worst of both worlds, having to maintain lengthy quarantines on international visitors while people faced quarantine of at least two weeks to enter the mainland.

Yet, all the economic sacrifices have come to naught as ultimately Hong Kong’s Omicron outbreak is likely to cause as many Covid-19 deaths as some Western countries have seen over the past two years with little emphasis on a Covid-zero policy.

Hong Kong’s medical resources and coordination were focused on contact tracing and isolation, leaving it unprepared for a major community outbreak.

02:15

China sees biggest Covid-19 surge in 2 years, steps up measures

What can mainland China learn from this? Authorities should continue to make every effort to contain the surge in cases of Omicron and its BA. 2 sub-variant, as the mainland’s hospital system and society at large are not yet prepared to handle an explosion of cases.

Getting the surge under control would also allow the government to show the world that there is no crisis its system cannot solve – a powerful message given how Omicron has spread rapidly throughout the world.

But after this surge ends and before the next begins, officials must recognise that while a short-term Covid-19 crisis can be defeated through emergency measures, the long-term fight requires a complete and possibly permanent reorientation of society.

This means taking a position that Covid-19 not longer poses sufficient harm to justify a permanent normalisation of emergency measures, which carry their own costs.

During the respite, there should be a shift in messaging, to one of living with Covid-19, albeit on China’s own terms.

Beijing cannot afford to be caught flat-footed by the virus and see all its Covid-19 accomplishments wiped out, as has happened in Hong Kong. When possible, it should procure the most effective treatments and vaccines, reorient the medical system towards treating Covid-19 symptoms, prepare society and the economy for the initial shock, and adjust the thinking at all government levels.

Once this is achieved, China can continue to maintain a zero-Covid policy for as long as it is cost effective to do so. But when faced with an inevitable surge in cases, it should neither panic nor relax, but use the same energy it displayed in treating Covid-19 as a crisis to treat it as just another risk.

All countries and peoples must live with different threats and risks to their well-being. Covid-19 is not special in this regard.

Lee Jersey Wang is a China Forum associate