Russia’s attack on Ukraine has the liberal world order shaken and thus also the foundations of European foreign and defence policy. Recent events have forced a paradigm shift, with the result that EU countries are suddenly inclined to upgrade significantly. When even the EU’s enfant terrible, Viktor Orban, speaks of unity, one realises that things are about to change in Brussels. Hungary’s leader recently spoke out in favour of the European Union standing together in the face of Russia’s invasion. What appears like a travesty at first, considering Orban had recently hinted at his country’s exit from the EU, is a testament to what three weeks of war in Ukraine have caused outside the battlefield: Russian President Vladimir Putin is forging a united community of 27 member states. Europeans have long wondered how much more incapable and, at times, downright incompetent the region could appear on the global stage. The “brain death” of Nato, the fact that, without American help, Europeans were unable even to secure an airport in Afghanistan , or the fact that Europe’s most powerful country, Germany, had become a quasi no-show in international conflicts and anti-terror operations, are just some examples of shortcomings. However, February 28 showed that even Europeans are inclined to draw a red line – and actually enforce it. EU leaders passed the most severe economic and financial sanctions ever against Russia in response to Putin’s war in Ukraine. Russian planes were banned from EU airspace, while military aid to Ukraine was announced and subsequently delivered. Russian banks have been kicked out of the Swift international payment system, sanctions against Russia’s central bank have been enforced, a ban on the Moscow state media channels Russia Today and Sputnik TV has been implemented, and the assets of various oligarchs have been frozen. The pressure is on. However, even more consequential than the sanctions and current aid to Ukraine that Russia’s aggression has prompted is that member states are finally willing to recalibrate their security policies. Last Friday, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell proposed to increase support for Kyiv by another half a billion euros in Versailles. The European Commission said it would “finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack”. Putin’s war of aggression has “fundamentally altered” the security situation in Europe, commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday after the meeting. Indeed, and Europeans are taking action. Sweden, Denmark, Romania and Latvia are seeking to upgrade their military capabilities significantly, while Poland plans to increase its military spending to 3 per cent of GDP by next year. The most astonishing change of direction has come from Berlin. Germany has not only committed to increasing its defence budget from around 1.3 per cent of GDP to over 2 per cent, but will also provide a special fund of €100 billion (US$109 billion) for the notoriously underfunded military. Moreover, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz renounced three decades of his Social Democratic Party’s Russia policy of appeasement in exchange for the novel stance of finally seeing Putin for what he is. German U-turn on Russia shows appeasement does not work Germany’s role here is henceforth pivotal. It must act as Europe’s motor, since the paradigm shift in the bloc’s security policy will not happen in lockstep. The EU needs a coherent strategy, not merely a deterrent. America’s focus on China, President Joe Biden’s weakness in leadership, the Republicans’ proclivity for performative politics over serious legislation, and the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2024 are factors to consider alongside Russia’s pariah status. Despite Washington’s involvement in Ukraine, Europe must finally be able to act independently and define its own interests. All member states must break with their old certitudes for this to work. Only then will the path be clear for a military union, which Europe needs if it is to meet the challenges of these times. The target of 2 per cent of GDP for defence spending can therefore only be the beginning. The next step should be to establish a common defence strategy. “A Strategic Compass for the EU”, which is intended to provide European security policy orientation, is a start. In light of the attack on Ukraine, the document was recently rewritten. It now speaks of an “increasingly hostile security environment” to which member states would have to react with a “quantum leap” in common defence. In addition to the principle of solidarity, comparable to that of Nato, a new 5,000-strong intervention force is to be established. Nato has meddled in Europe’s security, Ukraine is the result A divided and weakened Europe was Putin’s goal for many years, and he pursued it not only through a hostile foreign policy but also with cyberattacks and propaganda. Putin was the leader who plays three-dimensional chess, almost two steps ahead of his adversaries. However, after almost three weeks of war in Ukraine, it’s clear that Putin underestimated not only the Ukrainians, but the Europeans, too. They are more united than they have been for years, and the Gordian knots that had long paralysed the EU are unravelling. Whatever the outcome in Ukraine, the price Putin is paying for his war far exceeds oil, gas and financial assets. Subsequently, he will find himself in a world where Europe will no longer appease but will react, unwilling to remain a pawn on Putin’s chessboard. Thomas O. Falk is a UK-based independent journalist and political analyst