Russia’s war on Ukraine: whatever happens next, China wins

China’s trade with a stronger or weaker Russia can only deepen, even as the fallout distracts the West from Asia
It is also an opportunity for China to push its Belt and Road Initiative, while Hong Kong could become a resurgent player by catering to Russia’s banking needs

Mike Walker

Published: 3:30am, 19 Mar 2022

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I have covered Russia, Belarus and post-Soviet issues since 1997 and also worked as a translator of Russian to English. Unlike many Western journalists, for a long time I was impressed overall with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s performance.

Many of his accomplishments, especially in his first 10 years, would be rather incredible for a leader of any nation: from the ashes of the USSR, Russia became not only a free-market economy but a proud nation, and this was strongly based on Putin’s personal efforts to draw on pre-Soviet Russian history and the Russian Orthodox faith.

In what could have become decades of lingering uncertainty, Putin brought Russians to believe in themselves and their nation. Under his oversight, the Russian economy in the early 2000s also became one where the average middle-class Russian enjoyed greater prosperity than ever in the history of the USSR.

Arguments for or against the second Chechen war and the annexation of Crimea can be made and numerous opportunities for diversifying the economy were ignored, yet overall, Putin’s performance has been impressive.

Until now, that is. For the sake of argument, even if Putin’s grievances with Ukraine can be accepted as valid, a full-scale invasion of a sovereign nation and the brutality of that invasion on civilians cannot be justified.

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Like many who work in Russian-focused arenas, I did not believe Putin would actually invade: he has implemented reverse applications of information warfare before, using actual military assets as an extension of disinformation campaigns to influence diplomacy, rather than the other way around.

Massing troops on Ukraine’s borders therefore seemed to make some perverse sense as it was compelling Western nations to meet Putin at his (rather oversized) bargaining table and largely on his terms. But, in the end, Putin did not get what he wanted so the troops were sent in on a “special military operation”.

We have heard all manner of speculation about what this means for Europe, for the West – but what of the East? From the onset of Western sanctions, China has been the obvious mechanism for Russia to survive economically and logistically.

And China has a lot to gain as well, with bespoke agricultural operations in Russia already producing food for China and a ready market for Russian metals and minerals. While the gas and oil wealth of Russia always makes the headlines, Russia’s considerable raw materials, from nickel to diamonds, are also crucial exports – and all exports that are crucial can only be such if they are also key imports for someone else.

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Increasingly, that someone in the Russian equation is China and the calculus is that China is likely to be a winner from this conflict no matter what else transpires in the end.

China will gain with a stronger Russia – a Russia able to conduct greater trade – if such is the case. But, if Russia is only further isolated by Western sanctions, then China has a captive audience in Russia – again, China is the “winner”. If Russia is ravaged by the economic costs of sanctions and wartime expenditures, then Moscow will be desperate to sell whatever it can at fire-sale prices to China.

With the West unexpectedly forced to deal with new Russian threats to Europe, coupled with a refugee crisis, this will also lead European Union and US strategic eyes away from Asia. That can only be welcome for China.

Hong Kong, meanwhile, could become a resurgent player by catering to Russia’s banking needs, even as some of the Western market has drifted towards Singapore and elsewhere.

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The fact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was unexpected by most in policy circles and signifies some manner of change in Putin’s demeanour, though not his overarching goals, cannot be stressed enough: it was a seismic event and how it will end is still open to conjecture.

However, it is an opportunity in many ways for China: a chance to take a lead in diplomacy as China holds the cards that the West does not, and counts Russia as a friend. It is also an opportunity for Beijing to shift international economic focus further towards its Belt and Road Initiative.

The development of the Russian East can now be seen as primary and not secondary to that of European Russia. Ukraine has deeply changed the calculus of Russia’s economy – possibly for decades.

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Perhaps all of this should not have caught analysts so unawares. Leading, if outlying, figures in international relations such as John Mearsheimer and Charles Kupchan warned of such things as far back as 2012-2014.

Mearsheimer noted that the United States and its actions brought about many of the issues between Russia and Ukraine while Kupchan foresaw a coming century neither American, nor European, nor fully East Asian in centricity but composed of probable Chinese economic leadership with diverse regional influences from Russia, the Islamic Middle East and emerging powers such as India and Brazil.

If Russia is bent on quasi-imperial ambitions, that will lead either to a grand expansion of Russia and its sphere of influence plus a chilling of relations with the West – or massive losses associated with such attempts.

Either way, nothing can be the same as before. What that means for China is a sea change in the global order because China holds the cards to make this profitable – no matter what else, however tragic or hopeful, may transpire.

Mike Walker is a writer and translator (Russian and Korean) who lives in America