Opinion | Ukraine parallels: why Vietnam should worry more than Taiwan

In Asia, it is Vietnam, rather than Taiwan, that faces the same kind of strategic isolation as Ukraine, given its ‘three nos’ doctrine of geopolitical neutrality

Worse, as sweeping sanctions hit Russia, Hanoi may no longer be able to rely on Moscow as a source of military hardware and strategic investment

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A view of the Lan Tay gas platform, operated by Rosneft Vietnam, a unit of Russian state oil firm Rosneft, in the South China Sea off the coast of Vung Tau, Vietnam, in 2018. Photo: Reuters

Published: 9:45am, 30 Mar 2022

“We have been left alone to defend our state,” declared Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, calling on his people to remain steadfast in the face of Russian aggression. “Who is ready to fight alongside us? I don’t see anyone. Who is ready to give Ukraine a guarantee of Nato membership? Everyone is afraid,” he added, underscoring Ukraine’s tragic predicament.

Even as it unleashes a wave of sanctions on Moscow, and provides state-of-the-art weaponry to Kyiv, the West has made it clear that it is neither ready to admit Ukraine to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, nor confront Russia militarily.

The Ukraine conflict has sent shock waves across the world, especially in Asia. According to conventional wisdom, the closest analogue to Ukraine is Taiwan.

After all, Beijing has repeatedly declared its willingness to employ “all necessary means” to reunify the self-ruling island. On closer examination, however, it is clear that it is Vietnam, rather than Taiwan, which faces the same kind of strategic isolation as Ukraine.

Taiwan has enjoyed robust defence cooperation with the United States, and they had a mutual defence treaty from 1955 to 1980. In contrast, Vietnam, under its doctrine of “three nos”, has shunned overt geopolitical alignments with foreign powers.

This same de facto neutrality might leave Vietnam exposed in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment in Asia. Facing maritime and border disputes with a resurgent China, Vietnam could struggle to solicit military assistance from either an isolated Russia or a lukewarm US in the event of a major conflict in the future.

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