3 reasons China will not forcibly reunify with Taiwan any time soon

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked fears of Taiwan suffering a similar fate, there are good reasons for Beijing not to reunify through force
China’s global image problem, the need for external stability and a stated goal of peaceful reunification should put Zhongnanhai off any thought of invading

Michael Zhou

Published: 7:30am, 12 Apr 2022

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If the leaders in Zhongnanhai have agreed on a list of top priorities for China this year, armed reunification with Taiwan is unlikely to appear on that list.

The war in Ukraine has raised speculation about an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade province. However, Beijing is not likely to make a move on the island any time soon because it is not in China’s strategic interest to do so.

Three reasons explain why. First, international opinion of China has become more negative.

A key geopolitical lesson that the war in Ukraine offers for China is that international opinion matters. Russia is seen as the aggressor and has lost the battle for international opinion and support. Its military operations in Ukraine are crippled by international isolation and economic sanctions.

Russia’s fate is not lost on the Chinese leadership. What worries Beijing more is that the country already faces a severe global image problem.

In recent years, China has come under fire for military intimidation, diplomatic suppression and undermining of international rules and norms, which have hurt its international standing. For example, a 2021 Pew Research survey showed that China was viewed negatively across 15 of the 17 advanced economies surveyed, including record highs in Canada, Germany, South Korea and the United States.

China needs more than better communication to fix its Africa image problem

That should serve as a wake-up call for the Chinese government. As the international community turns more suspicious of China’s intentions, perceived Chinese aggression against Taiwan will make Beijing more susceptible to diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions.

Second, China desperately needs to maintain a stable external environment to concentrate on addressing its domestic challenges. If one word captures China’s priorities for 2022, it is “stability”. At the country’s annual parliamentary meetings earlier this year, the Chinese government underscored self-reliance and stability in its economic priorities.

Addressing the National People’s Congress in March, Premier Li Keqiang highlighted that “in our work this year, we must make economic stability our top priority and pursue progress while ensuring stability”.

The more things change, the more Xi focuses on stability

In addition to reviving a sluggish economy, projecting confidence and stability in the face of new domestic Covid-19 outbreaks and the war in Ukraine is crucial for President Xi Jinping ahead of this fall’s party congress, during which Xi is poised to extend his stay in power.

What Beijing needs now is not war but steady growth, job creation and increased social welfare to keep Chinese people satisfied and employed amid economic uncertainty. To do so, the Chinese leadership needs to prioritise building stronger trade relations with China’s economic partners and restoring trust and confidence among its neighbours.

What regional countries want to see more of are Chinese cargo ships instead of warships. Making a move on Taiwan would be a costly distraction and an unwise provocation that would undo China’s plans for stability.

02:20

Heightened tensions in Taiwan amid Russian invasion of Ukraine

The third strategic consideration for Beijing is that its leaders say they remain committed to peaceful reunification. In a televised speech at the 110th anniversary of China’s 1911 revolution, which overthrew the Qing dynasty and turned China into a republic, Xi said peaceful reunification is in the mainland and Taiwan’s best interests.

At a press conference last month during the National People’s Congress, Li pledged to advance peaceful growth in relations with Taiwan and “reunification”, though he also stressed that China remained firmly opposed to separatist activities and foreign interference.

Chinese leaders’ emphasis on maintaining peaceful cross-strait relations carries historical logic. In Chinese history, civil wars are often associated with turbulence and chaos.

An illustrative example is the Chinese civil war fought between the Communists and Nationalists. Under the mantra that Chinese people should not fight against their own, the Communist Party criticised the ruling Nationalist government for throwing the country into the cauldron of civil war and bringing more suffering to the people.

Chinese workers remove a cache of grenades discovered at a construction site in Beijing in June 2010, which are believed to be buried since the end of the civil war in 1949. Photo: AFP

Back then, the mantra represented people’s anti-war sentiment and explained why the Nationalist government gradually lost the hearts and minds of the Chinese people. Showing aggression against your own compatriots, therefore, would be morally wrong and politically unviable. The Communist Party would be careful not to follow in the Nationalist government’s footsteps.

Peaceful reunification with Taiwan would lend greater credence to Beijing’s efforts at projecting an image as a benign, responsible global power. It would also help to bring clarity to China’s intentions and ambitions.

China’s image problem, the need for stability to address domestic woes and the weight of history should weigh on Beijing’s strategic calculations. These should caution Chinese leaders against an invasion of Taiwan. Reunification with Taiwan is just one of many priorities and issues that leaders in Zhongnanhai have on their agenda.

However, the above strategic considerations would only work barring any unexpected geopolitical developments or crises that might exhaust China’s patience or violate one of its “red lines”. Should Taiwan declare independence or the US increase its military presence in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing will not hesitate to use force, whatever the costs might be.

Michael Zhou is pursuing a master of science in contemporary Chinese studies at the University of Oxford