Opinion | What will shape Philippines’ foreign policy post Duterte, and should China be concerned?

Strategic calculus and domestic political considerations, rather than populist antics, are most likely to shape the next president’s foreign policy

Both front runners are established mainstream figures with international ties and, unlike their predecessor, lack long-standing grudges against the West

Reading Time:4 minutes

Published: 10:15am, 30 Apr 2022

“The two sides’ proper handling of the South China Sea issue has provided an important foundation for the China-Philippines friendly cooperation,” President Xi Jinping told his counterpart in Manila ahead of next month’s Philippine presidential election.

During his online summit with Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Xi emphasised how the status quo had benefited both countries and “effectively safeguarded regional peace and stability”.

Weeks earlier, Foreign Minister Wang Yi publicly warned his Filipino counterpart Teodoro Locsin Jnr against any “disturbances” in bilateral relations amid the impending transition in the Philippine political system. Wang underscored the importance of “continuity and stability” to preserve the foundations of bilateral relations.

During the past decade, elections from Sri Lanka to Malaysia and the Philippines have produced maverick leaders who have overseen radical policy shifts. Thus, Beijing has ample reason to be concerned about the foreign policy implications of the latest presidential election in the Philippines.

Depending on which of the top two candidates emerges victorious, the highly polarised election could produce radically different outcomes for the country’s besieged democracy. On foreign policy, however, there is likely to be more continuity than change regardless of who succeeds Duterte.

Recent Philippine history is replete with wild swings in the country’s foreign policy. Former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo oversaw a “golden age” of bilateral relations with China to lessen strategic dependence on the United States.

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