Opinion | Differences within Asean and Quad could sink US Indo-Pacific agenda

While the Biden administration tries to bolster US alliances and partnerships in the region, internal differences threaten to undercut cohesion

Divergent positions on Russia, China, trade and Asean centrality will plague efforts to create a united front against regional concerns

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Published: 12:30am, 21 May 2022Updated: 1:23am, 21 May 2022

US President Joe Biden hosted Southeast Asian leaders at an in-person summit in Washington on May 13, hailing it as the beginning of a “new era” in the relations between the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Myanmar and the Philippines were not represented at the summit, with the former being excluded after the military coup and the latter being in the midst of a major electoral transition.

While the joint statement between the US and Asean was comprehensive and well-meaning, it was rather declaratory and subtle differences over a range of issues were discernible. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and anxiety over China were among the major areas of divergence at the summit.

There is likely to be a similar tenor at the Quad summit in Tokyo on May 24, where Biden will meet leaders from Japan, India and Australia.

The national election in Australia on May 21 will pit the current ruling Liberal coalition against the Labor opposition. China has become a major issue in the campaign, with both sides trying to appear tough in relation to the policy on Beijing they will follow if they are voted into power.

To that extent, the Tokyo summit could see a new leader in Canberra. This in turn could shift Australia’s orientation towards China and have an impact on the efficacy of the Quad as well as the Aukus agreement that brings together Australia, Britain and the US in the nuclear submarine domain of the Indo-Pacific.

The outcome of the US-Asean summit was modest. The differences on major strategic issues – such as the war in Ukraine and how to deal with China – were palpable and will have a bearing on the subtext of the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific.