Opinion | Ukraine war: how far can US, Nato push Putin before he uses nuclear weapons?

Western leaders must understand the Russian president’s thinking and ensure they don’t give him reason to launch nuclear weapons

Putin would only really feel threatened if the main forces of the Russian army were wiped out and Ukrainian or Nato troops pushed into Russian territory

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Published: 1:30am, 1 Jun 2022Updated: 1:36am, 1 Jun 2022

Before its “special military operation” against Ukraine, Russia conducted a strategic nuclear exercise. President Vladimir Putin clearly intended this to be a deterrent against direct military intervention by the Nato security alliance.

So far, President Joe Biden has said the United States will not directly engage the Russian military. Washington’s support to Ukraine has been limited to providing arms and intelligence, with fighter jets and now long-range rockets capable of reaching Russia seemingly off the menu. It might look like Putin’s nuclear deterrent is working, but beneath his seemingly tough talk lie weakness and cowardice.

When two nuclear-armed powers are engaged in a conventional military conflict, the underdog usually threatens to use the nuclear option first to make up for its strategic inadequacies. During the Korean war, for example, Chinese troops pushed back the US-led UN forces early in the conflict, leading US president Harry Truman to raise the prospect of using nuclear weapons to counter China’s push.

Similarly, in May 2002’s military conflict between India and Pakistan, the UN representative of Pakistan solemnly stated that it was difficult to guarantee that nuclear weapons would not be used when it faced serious setbacks in conventional warfare.

North Korea’s Kim Jong-un has also on many occasions shown off his nuclear-capable weapons, with missile launches and military parades, in a warning to the US, Japan and South Korea.

The example of North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons also shows that a small number of nuclear warheads and the basic ability to launch them can not only offset the advantage a major nuclear power has in conventional forces, but also the intimidation that thousands of nuclear warheads can inspire, achieving good leverage.

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