Standing by uneasy ally Russia over Ukraine not in China’s long-term interest

China and Russia are not natural allies, but geopolitics has pushed them together as they both feel they have been bullied by the West
The partnership between the two is situational and will become more so the longer the Ukraine war continues, eating away at the drivers of China’s rise

Lijia Zhang

Published: 3:30am, 2 Jun 2022

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China and Russia’s relationship can be summarised by the phrase “it’s complicated”. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked the world and led to widespread condemnation.

China’s failure to join the condemnation and its Russia-leaning “neutrality” have put the Sino-Russia relationship in the spotlight. The two are strategic partners, but are there really “no limits” to their cooperation?

For many Chinese of my generation, the Soviet Union featured prominently in our lives. For years, my favourite book was How the Steel Was Tempered, a Soviet novel about a solider fighting for the Bolsheviks.

In the 1950s, thousands of Soviet experts were sent to China, helping with our country’s construction. By the end of the 1950s, however, the relationship darkened over ideological and political differences. In the early 1960s, when a severe famine was killing millions of Chinese people, citizens had to tighten their belts to repay the Soviets. The enmity between the two countries culminated in a border clash near Zhenbao Island in 1969.

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After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the ice between China and Russia started to melt. In the past few decades, the relationship grew into today’s strategic partnership without limits.

Meanwhile, large changes have taken place. China is the world’s second-largest economy while Russia teeters in 11th place. Many Chinese now feel themselves to be the senior partner, while Russians feel culturally superior. Russia has produced literary giants such as Leo Tolstoy, Fyodor Dostoevsky and Alexander Pushkin, but China has not.

While older Chinese still hold some grudges, younger people generally hold a positive view of Russia. This is, at least in part, because of pro-Russia propaganda.

Most Russian people don’t know much about China. According to various surveys, their impressions of Chinese are that they are hard-working, good at business, uncivilised and inscrutable.

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Russian intellectuals are also suspicious of China. Political scientist Andrey Suzdaltsev wrote in Pravda last month that if Russia wins in Ukraine, then China will stand with it, but if Russia fails China could join the West in grabbing whatever it can from Russia.

China and Russia are not natural allies. Geopolitics has pushed them together as they both feel they have been bullied by the United States.

“There are still limits to the relationship, contrary to the official statement by Putin and Xi in February,” says Katie Stallard, a veteran British journalist who recently published Dancing on Bones: History and Power in China, Russia and North Korea. “China negotiated hard to get a good deal on energy prices for instance, and Russian elites do not send their children to Chinese universities or buy property in China in the same way they have done in the West.”

In fact, one can detect notes of discord and evidence of competition as well as cooperation. China and Russia recently held joint military exercises, but Russia also sells huge amounts of arms to India, China’s rival. They are also both fighting to exert influence in Central Asia.

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The Sino-Russian partnership is situational and the two are unlikely to become long-term allies. The longer the Ukraine war drags on, the more questionable the relationship becomes.

Being tied to Russia’s sinking ship is not good for China’s long-term interests. China’s resurgence has come on the back of mutually beneficial trade with the West, and its Russia-leaning stance in the Ukraine crisis can only harm that key element of the Chinese economy.

In March, amid increasing criticism of its stance on the Ukraine war, Foreign Minister Wang Yi claimed “China stands on the right side of history over the Ukraine crisis, as time will tell.” But standing on the right side of history means complying with international law. Russia’s invasion of a sovereign nation has clearly broken the law and China has a duty to condemn it.

Considering the complexity of the China-Russia relationship and the fact China can play a positive role in easing the Ukraine crisis, the US should not antagonise China. During his recent trip to Tokyo, US President Joe Biden said the US military would defend Taiwan if it was attacked by the mainland.

It might have been a slip of the tongue or a sign of the US moving away from its policy of “strategic ambiguity”. Whatever the case, it escalated tensions with China. Given the horrors of the war in Ukraine, surely China is the lesser evil for the US.

Lijia Zhang is a rocket factory worker turned social commentator and the author of a novel, Lotus