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Opinion | US’ Indo-Pacific economic bloc irks China but it may not be all bad for the region

  • The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework signals the start of competition within global institutions between the US and China
  • While this could have destructive effects, it also has the potential to inspire institutional reform and for great powers to provide more public goods

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US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi listen to other leaders during the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity launch event at the Izumi Garden Gallery in Tokyo on May 23. Photo: Reuters
On May 23, US President Joe Biden announced the establishment of a new economic grouping, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), including 13 inaugural members and accounting for about 40 per cent of the world’s GDP. China has not been invited. Given Biden’s claim that “we’re writing the new rules for the 21st-century economy”, it is clear that China is not only excluded but also targeted.
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It looks like a win for the United States in this round of the institutional balancing game against China. Given former president Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) some five years ago, the IPEF sends a clear message to the region that the United States is back in business.

The IPEF is also an economic branch of the US Indo-Pacific strategy against China, which previously focused on security issues through the Quad. Similar to the TPP and the Quad, the IPEF is an exclusive institutional balancing strategy that the US has adopted to counteract China’s economic clout in the region.

Exclusive institutional balancing can be defined as a strategy aiming to exclude a target state from an institutional grouping so the cohesion and unity of the institution will undermine the influence and power of the target state. In contrast, inclusive institutional balancing includes the target state in an institutional setting. In this case, the target state will be constrained, shaped and socialised by the rules and norms of the institution.

Following the 2008 global financial crisis, the US and China led a new wave of multilateralism. China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) touched a sensitive nerve in Washington as it was considered a challenge to US global financial governance through the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

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In a similar fashion, China’s Belt and Road Initiative was seen as a Chinese economic hub-and-spoke system challenging US leadership.

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