Ukraine conflict highlights the need to find better ways to feed the world

Shortages exacerbated by the war have sharpened the resolve of both governments and people, giving businesses and innovators a chance to overhaul the system
From better logistics and agricultural technology to alternatives to meat, grains and fertiliser use, a food revolution is brewing

Mayssa Al Midani

Published: 1:30am, 22 Jun 2022

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Surging food prices and supply problems, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have cast a spotlight on what was already a major global problem: food security.

Food demand is expected to increase by around 50 per cent by 2050, compared to 2013 levels, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. Yet, supply will struggle to keep up, given that arable land and water resources are shrinking in many parts of the world and that, even today, some 2 billion people do not have regular access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food.

The Ukraine war, which has led to shortages of grains and fertiliser, and adds to already high inflation, is expected to push back progress on food security by 10 years. More people in South Asia and Africa are likely to spend over 20 per cent of their income on food, exacerbating the problems caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

These are huge and complex social and environmental challenges for which there is no silver bullet. Solving them requires solutions across the food value chain.

The crisis should, however, focus minds and accelerate both the adoption of alternatives to grains and less-efficient animal proteins, as well as the development of efficient food production and shorter, more secure supply chains.

That, in turn, presents an opportunity for innovative businesses and investors who can work together to improve the sustainability, accessibility and quality of food.

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One promising solution is agriculture technology, or AgTech, which makes it possible to improve crop yields with fewer resources. There is likely to be a greater focus across the agricultural industry on reducing reliance on fertilisers given the supply disruptions, with Russia and Ukraine together accounting for about 20 per cent of global exports of nitrogen fertiliser and 30 per cent of potash.

That can be addressed with a greater emphasis on vertical farms and precision farming, both of which come with the added benefit of lower pollution.

Meanwhile, in the wake of grain shortages, livestock farming can be made more efficient through better diagnostics and preventive animal health measures, including vitamins, eubiotics (which promote gut health), enzymes and vaccines which improve feed absorption and yields.

Another way of easing shortages is making the most of what we have. Here, the priority is reducing waste, which swallows up a third of all food produced – some 1.3 billion tonnes a year.

Cutting the waste mountain requires better logistics, better distribution networks and better food safety – all of which can be improved by technology. Promising innovations include aseptic packaging, where high temperatures are used to sterilise food before packaging it, thus extending the shelf life without chemicals or refrigeration.

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Another approach, known as natural bioprotection, draws on traditional fermentation principles and uses specially developed food cultures to better preserve yogurt and cheese.

Food that has gone to waste, meanwhile, is increasingly being repurposed, whether through converting excess oil and animal fat into animal feed or biofuel, or (on a smaller scale) using whey from cheese-making to create packaging for more food.

Then there’s the production of food. A burning issue for producers is how to make food more nutritious, affordable and ideally more sustainable.

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Food companies are scrambling to develop laboratory-grown meat, find plant-based alternatives to milk (such as oats or potatoes) and improve affordability. There is also strong demand for natural ingredients which, unlike synthetic ones, are less dependent on petrol to produce.

Producing more food locally is another solution that has multiple benefits: it offers more reliable supply, reduces waste and has a smaller carbon footprint with improved traceability. Locally produced food also eases the pressure on shrinking resources, such as freshwater supplies and arable land.

Indoor, vertical farms, meanwhile, are also expanding rapidly, offering the prospect of quality local food to areas where there is little space or the climate is challenging. The companies operating such farms are investing heavily.

Vertical farming company Kalera, for example, is building a mega farm in Singapore to grow some 500,000kg of leafy greens every year, as part of the island nation’s plans to provide 30 per cent of its own nutritional needs by 2030 (up from around 10 per cent).

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Traditional farms are also embracing the latest scientific advances, which allow farmers to use water and fertiliser precisely where they are required, resulting in an up to 80 per cent reduction in freshwater and fertiliser use. Such techniques can also improve yields, preserve scarce resources and reduce nitrogen oxide emissions.

Food logistics is undergoing a makeover, too. There is a growing appetite for direct-to-consumer food services (such as farm-to-fork meal kits) and almost any new-generation food production and logistics model, which can shorten the complex global supply chains and reduce the risk of logistics issues, spoilage and contamination.

For the first time, we see governments and consumers aligned on the development of better quality and more sustainable food products and agricultural methods. It is also a future in which companies operating across the food value chain use the technology they already have to meet these demands.

Mayssa Al Midani is a senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management

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