My Take | China has a choice of leadership or dominance over the Mekong

The next war in Asia may not be in sea waters, but over fresh water. While maritime disputes in the South and East China seas have mostly to do with national prestige and regional supremacy, the disputes over water supply are all about survival. In both sets of conflicts, China plays a central part. But in the latter, it holds the upper hand.

It’s not an accident that, of the five countries in Southeast Asia – Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam and Cambodia – that share the Mekong River as their main water source, three have close relations with Beijing while Thailand and Vietnam have to play a balancing act between the United States and China, but never going too far against the latter. Washington should realise there is a limit to how far Hanoi can go against Beijing without committing suicide or dying by thirst.

Mekong: geology and politics

All five countries are in the downstream of the Mekong, while China is at the upstream, with 11 giant dams that greatly influence, if not control water flows. An estimated 60 million people live on the river and derive livelihoods from it in the lower basin.

The Tibetan Plateau is the source of this great river. A new study – carried out by researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment – has warned that global warming and atmospheric circulation changes are increasing water stress, especially among nations downstream. It focuses on the geology but not the politics. However, it’s not hard to see that, with each passing decade, simmering tensions between the countries will only worsen.

China’s control of large swathes of the Tibetan Plateau and Xinjiang has made it the starting point of rivers reaching down to 18 downstream countries. The plateau has sometimes been called the Third Pole and Asia’s water tower.

“No other country in the world serves as the riverhead for so many countries,” wrote Brahma Chellaney, author of Water: Asia’s New Battleground. That gives China enormous leverage over those countries; and in the longer run, that may be more significant than its quest for dominance in the Pacific. It is also a series of complicated geopolitical disputes in which Washington has little leverage.