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BRICS leaders (clockwise, from top left) South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the virtual 14th BRICS Summit on June 23. Photo: AP
Opinion
Abishur Prakash
Abishur Prakash

How an expanded BRICS could lead the world instead of the waning West

  • Adding new members to the grouping would fragment the world on a scale not seen since the Cold War and amplify the new era of ‘vertical globalisation’
  • The US would not be at the centre of geopolitics for the first time since World War II, and even France may be persuaded to join
At the recent BRICS summit, there was one message that came out loud and clear: the grouping is intent on becoming independent from the West and is ready to chart its own course.
The ideas discussed by BRICS leaders point to new contours of the world forming. For example, President Xi Jinping said sanctions weaponise the global economy and putting “blind faith in the so-called position of strength” is not the right way.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of cooperation as a governance model has set a new tone of how the group views its role in the world. From currencies and payment mechanisms to supply chains and transport infrastructure, Russian President Vladimir Putin talked about what is possible and is in the works.

But the most significant aspect of the summit is the possibility of the group expanding beyond Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and adding new members, namely Saudi Arabia and Argentina. This would fragment the world on a scale not seen since the Cold War and amplify the new era of “vertical globalisation” that has begun. In the end, it could be the West that loses out.

Take global food shortages, for example. Argentina is the world’s second-largest exporter of corn, after the United States. Saudi Arabia, through its investment vehicle the Saudi Agricultural and Livestock Investment Company, owns 35 per cent of Olam Agri, one of the world’s largest suppliers of cacao, rice and coffee.

Add in Indian rice and wheat, Russian barley and sunflower oil, Chinese cotton and Brazilian soybeans and an expanded BRICS has a food basket the whole world wants. One possibility is that BRICS+ could set up a food exchange where nations purchase essential needs such as wheat, rice or corn.

01:29

India halts wheat exports as food security threatened by heatwave, Ukraine war

India halts wheat exports as food security threatened by heatwave, Ukraine war

Alongside global food shortages, the world is also grappling with an energy crunch. Consider that Russia and Saudi Arabia together produce almost 20 million barrels of oil a day, but so far there has been no group that brings together oil exporters and importers. BRICS+ could change that.

Some of the world’s biggest oil exporters – Russia and Saudi Arabia – would be in a group with their biggest customers in India and China. The oil exporters might begin to produce and price energy based on the internal dynamics of BRICS+. That would mean BRICS+ could become the next OPEC.

Include the renewable energy production of nations such as India and China and BRICS+ could set global energy production and prices for everything from oil to natural gas and solar power.

Regardless of the role BRICS+ chooses to play globally, the expansion of the group would lead to immense changes in how the world works.

US leadership and its global footprint have eroded and it is no longer just America’s competitors, such as Russia and China, that are banding together. Now, some of America’s closest partners, like Saudi Arabia, are looking for alternatives. For the first time since World War II, the US would not be the centre of a group driving geopolitics.

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Second, the rest of the world would have to adapt to the decisions of BRICS+. Take rising inflation and the looming global recession. Instead of the Group of 20 or International Monetary Fund organising financial meetings, it might be BRICS+ that coordinates monetary policy among central bankers.

This isn’t just about raising interest rates. If BRICS+ nations coordinate monetary policy, it could extend into areas such as dealing with shadow economies. These have so far been areas of domestic policy. Soon, they might become part of foreign policy.

Finally, BRICS expansion would be unlikely to stop at Saudi Arabia and Argentina. Consider that BRICS+ would have a presence in every region except Europe, and there is at least one nation in Europe that might want to join: France. The French still feel hurt over the Aukus security agreement, and France is one of the few Western nations that has not adopted an openly hostile attitude towards Russia.

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Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has had the goal of isolating Russia. With BRICS+, that strategy could fall apart. To deal with what’s happening in the world, it could be BRICS+ rather than the Group of 7 that creates solutions for everything from food security and monetary policy to energy production.

Of course, the expansion of BRICS comes with its own challenges. Tensions between members such as India and China would have to be ironed out for BRICS+ to have any longevity. And the fact that countries such as Saudi Arabia were allowed to join may anger nations like Iran if they were barred from joining the grouping.

Also, part of the potential of BRICS+ lies in the fact that it is a small and exclusive group; as it grows bigger, it risks losing its effectiveness and becoming another G20.

Finally, BRICS+ would have to perform a balancing act with other groups, especially the Quad and I2U2, a new US-led group featuring India, Israel and the United Arab Emirates, focused on West Asia. This could be complicated as India is a member of all three groups.

As the Ukraine war intensifies, a new competition has begun over who will lead the world. BRICS+ is the first salvo in this new battle for global power, but it will certainly not be the last.

Abishur Prakash is a co-founder and geopolitical futurist at the Centre for Innovating the Future (CIF), an advisory firm based in Toronto, Canada

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