The View | Ukraine war: energy-hungry South Asia forced to walk a fine line between Russia, China and US

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has created global fiscal disruption. US crude oil briefly hit a 13-year high of US$130 a barrel in March amid Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas, with prices of Russian gas also rising sharply.

The ensuing supply chain gap created a global shortage of staples, exacerbating food insecurity as global debt soared above US$300 trillion. Russia has turned towards Asia as the default market for its energy amid the crisis, but it has failed to find many takers in South Asia.

India, the most significant player in the region, was one of the first countries to buy discounted oil from Russia. It also refused to join the economic sanctions against Moscow and abstained during the UN resolution condemning Russian aggression. This went against the stance of its key partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region, earning it the ire of the United States.

Second, India enjoys a long-standing relationship with Russia and is heavily dependent on it for arms and oil. In the event of a future conflict with China, India would not want Moscow to align with Beijing. India relies on Russia for most of its weaponry, with at least 60 per cent of its conventional arsenal of Soviet or Russian origin.

Despite efforts to diversify its weapons acquisition, India cannot totally forgo Russian arms. India also recently received its first shipment of Russian goods along the International North South Transportation Corridor, which it intends to leverage as a check on Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative in the region.