Opinion | How climate change will exacerbate China-India tensions

The two countries’ shared river systems are already a source of friction, which will only be worsened by flooding due to an increase in extreme rainfall and enhanced glacier melt

Rising temperatures in the Himalayan region will enable further militarisation of contested border areas

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Published: 10:15am, 18 Jul 2022Updated: 11:31am, 18 Jul 2022

Climate change as a threat multiplier is evolving as a key dynamic in the rivalry between China and India. The absence of robust trans-boundary resource-sharing mechanisms has increased both the actual and perceived risks of conflict between the two nations.

Their shared river systems, the Yarlung Tsangpo (known as the Brahmaputra in India) in the east and the River Indus in the west have become sources tension, as the effects of climate change, such as retreating glaciers, increased precipitation and glacial lake outburst floods, affect the distribution and movement of water in these rivers.

The rise in temperature in the erstwhile inhabitable border regions of Ladakh – the site of bloody clashes between soldiers of the two countries in the summer of 2020 – has led to increased military activity in the region, augmented by the development of advanced infrastructure and sophisticated weaponry. These developments are feeding into the conflict dynamics between the rivals.

The Yarlung Tsangpo river, which is prone to flooding, has long been a source of friction. A report released last year by Woodwell Climate Research Centre and the Council on Strategic Risks, says climate impacts, such as a rise in extreme rainfall and enhanced glacier melt, will increase discharge (the volumetric rate of water flow) and the potential for flooding throughout the lower portion of the basin.

As much as 65 per cent of the annual precipitation in the river basin falls in India whereas China receives only 21 per cent. Even if China is not the origin of most of the flooding, the report notes, any major flood event will be construed by the lower riparian India to have been manipulated by China upstream.

The construction of dams by China has further added to the trust deficit. As part of Beijing’s objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, it plans to construct a series of hydropower projects, including a 60 gigawatt dam at the “Great Bend” on the Yarlung Tsangpo river, where it curves southwards before entering India. China has already built the smaller Zangmu dam along the river upstream.

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