How the West’s sanctions on Russia are fuelling political and economic instability – and resentment – in South Asia
Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, exacerbated by rising food and fuel costs, has set alarm bells ringing across the region
Bangladesh has warned that sanctions are affecting imports of vital goods and materials, while India has been forced to rely more on Russia for its energy needs amid rising oil prices
The United States and its Nato allies have imposed wide-ranging sanctions against Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. These sanctions were expected to cripple Russia’s war effort. However, they have yet to succeed in their desired objectives.
On the other hand, they are causing financial and political problems for poorer nations, including those in South Asia.
Sanctions are one of the most important tools of diplomacy in the modern world. They are imposed against countries seen as violating international rules and norms.
The utility of sanctions has long been debated. Critics argue that sanctions don’t affect the ruling elite in the targeted country but instead adversely affect ordinary citizens who have no role in decision-making and only suffer because of things done by their rulers.
Thus, sanctions can sometimes turn out to be misdirected and not produce the desired results. Instead, they end up creating ill will among the people of the targeted country.
The sanctions imposed against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have received a mixed response. This case presents an awkward situation. The United Nations is unable to impose sanctions as Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council and would thus veto any such proposal.
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Russian chocolate factory claims to maintain stable production amid Western sanctions
Russian chocolate factory claims to maintain stable production amid Western sanctions
Moreover, it would be difficult to gain approval from China, another Security Council member, which has expressed sympathy with Russia over its invasion. As a result, sanctions have mostly been enacted by the US and its allies while other countries are expected to abide by these restrictions or face penalties themselves.
The sanctions against Russia could be a double-edged sword. While they are intended to inflict economic pain on Moscow, they are also having an effect on European countries – including US allies – which are highly dependent on oil and gas from Russia. Many European countries have talked about pushing forward their transition to green energy, to ease the effects of losing access to Russian exports, but that is easier said than done and will take time.
Even when complete, nations will still require some oil and gas. So, even with the various sanctions imposed on Russia, Western nations still have to rely on Russian oil and gas deliveries until they can find other sources. It is not surprising that Russia has cut off energy supplies, or threatened to do so, to countries that support sanctions against it.
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Sri Lankans return to cooking with firewood as fuel crisis deepens
Sri Lankans return to cooking with firewood as fuel crisis deepens
These sanctions are also proving unpopular in other parts of the world, especially South Asia. Some countries in the region oppose the sanctions as they could ultimately represent a threat to their survival.
Sri Lanka is suffering an economic crisis and is all but bankrupt, largely due to financial mismanagement by the ruling political elite, although several other factors have played a part.
The war in Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic have exacerbated the country’s financial woes. The Russian sanctions have, for example, contributed to increased food and fuel prices, and fuel shortages have brought the country to a halt. Now, chaos prevails across the country.
Sri Lanka’s struggles have set alarm bells ringing in other South Asian countries. Pakistan – another nation struggling from the effects of economic mismanagement – is trying to manage its affairs by taking more loans from other countries and the International Monetary Fund, but it appears to be drifting towards a crisis. Rising food and fuel costs, related to the sanctions on Russia, are exacerbating the situation.
Other countries including Nepal and Bangladesh have also become cautious. Nepal’s economy is struggling, and the government has stopped all non-essential imports. As foreign exchange problems grow worse, Nepal has told China it will not take any more loans and will only welcome grants.
Bangladesh, whose economy has been doing well despite the pandemic, is seen as a shining star in South Asia. Recently, though, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina expressed concern that the sanctions on Russia were causing her country problems and urged the US to ease them.
She said the sanctions were preventing Bangladesh from importing needed goods and materials, and were causing a surge in transport costs. She also pointed out that people across the world were suffering because of the sanctions.
India is no exception to all this. To keep its economy functioning smoothly, New Delhi must import hydrocarbons, so India is sensitive to oil price changes. As a result, it has increased its oil imports from Russia despite its growing closeness to the US and other Western countries.
New Delhi is also increasing its coal imports from Russia as many parts of the country are dealing with power shortages, and India is also heavily dependent on Russia for arms.
Workers load coal onto a truck at the Jharia coalfield in Dhanbad, in India’s Jharkhand state, on October 14, 2021. India’s dependence on Russia for oil, gas, coal and arms has prevented it from supporting Western sanctions despite its growing closeness to the US. Photo: AFP
India cannot afford to blindly follow the West in these sanctions on Russia, especially when its rival China is ignoring those same sanctions. In the past, India was unable to take a clear stance on sanctions imposed on Iran, and as a result China benefited economically and geopolitically.
Thus, the West should understand this and avoid creating a situation that only widens the economic gap between India and China.
Rather than hampering the Russian war effort against Ukraine, the sanctions imposed by the West appear to be affecting a large number of people across the developing world. South Asian countries are facing political and economic instability, so it’s hardly surprising that the sanctions are extremely unpopular among the people.
Dr Anand Kumar is an associate fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi
