My TakeTaiwanese do actually know what is going on in Beijing

Say what you like about the Taiwanese, they do tend to have a much more accurate or realistic appraisal of mainland China’s intentions than most Western think tanks and politicians.

Remember all that nonsense about Beijing’s preparations to invade the island, any time now? And, if the Russians have done it to Ukraine, surely Beijing will want the same with Taiwan?

But Taiwanese media accounts of the latest report on the all-important twice-a-decade national congress by the Mainland Affairs Council – a cabinet-level agency under the Executive Yuan of the Taiwanese government – offers a very different picture.

One immediate takeaway is that at the October meeting – where President Xi Jinping is expected to take a precedent-breaking third term – economic and political stability will remain Beijing’s policy priorities. From this assessment, paradoxically though, many of the mainland’s ongoing problems and challenges follow.

You may or may not agree with the council’s report. But if stability is the priority, then the last thing Beijing wants is to risk an invasion of the island, at least for now.

The report argues that the ruthless and unquestioned drive for stability has often resulted in its opposite. For example, tough control measures during the Covid-19 pandemic were initially successful, making China the first major economy to recover last year. This year, though, it has become a liability and a complete drag on the economy, making the goal of 5.5 per cent annual growth difficult, if not impossible.