A local resident rides past an abandoned Russian tank in the village of Kurylivka, in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, on October 1. Photo: Reuters
Opinion
Macroscope
by Anthony Rowley
Macroscope
by Anthony Rowley
Drums of war are drowning out calls to fight climate change and poverty
Despite the prospect of protracted fiscal and monetary austerity, defence budgets around the world are ballooning as governments focus on security
This rise in defence-related spending is absurd when the world should be focusing on preventing pandemics, surviving climate change and eradicating poverty
French emperor Napoleon Bonaparte is reputed to have observed that “an army marches on its stomach”, meaning that well-fed soldiers are the best in battle. If that is so, then can we expect to see the combat readiness of Asian and other militaries decline as economic recession sets in?
It would seem logical to expect defence outlays to decline along with other government spending as the world enters a possibly long period of fiscal and monetary austerity. The global economy is being battered by everything from the Covid-19 pandemic to supply chain disruptions as it struggles to recover.
And yet, most of the world’s major military powers – from the United States, China and India to Japan, Germany and the UK – are in the process of dramatically increasing their defence spending just as their revenues come under strain and demands on overall spending rise.
It is all a matter of priorities, of course, and traditionally in Asia and elsewhere those have centred on social security spending plus health, welfare and education outlays. Defence spending has been by no means negligible, but it has had to take its place in the queue.
Priorities change over time, however, and “security” – which can mean everything from military to economic security – is fast becoming an obsession among national leaders and politicians. So, if something has to give in the prospective new age of austerity, it is unlikely to be defence spending.
02:12
Taiwan unveils record defence budget as China stands firm on claim to island
Taiwan unveils record defence budget as China stands firm on claim to island
And yet, it seems absurd that defence-related spending should be increasing at both the national and international level just as the world faces its biggest-ever external threat in terms of potential magnitude and prospective cost – the war on climate change, pandemics and poverty.
The world is “at war with itself” rather than against these enemies as conflicts or threatened conflagrations expand everywhere from Ukraine to tensions over Taiwan that could embroil China and the US in particular but also Japan and others. Even so, the military build-up is gathering pace.
The five largest spenders in 2021 were the US, China, India, Britain and Russia, together accounting for 62 per cent of total military spending, according to recent data on global outlays published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Japan and Germany are shifting to a more aggressive posture on military spending, as is Australia, in line with its membership in the Quad grouping with the US, Japan and India. Pakistan is already a big spender, while Southeast Asian nations also are boosting defence budgets.
01:49
Japan’s defence strategy set for a boost after PM attends annual military review ceremony
Japan’s defence strategy set for a boost after PM attends annual military review ceremony
In terms of percentage of GDP, military outlays tend not to approach social expenditures by governments, which according to Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development figures are around 20 per cent of GDP in wealthy nations. Defence budgets generally amount to a minor share of GDP, except for outliers such as Saudi Arabia and Oman.
But rising military expenditures are something of a one-way street – much easier to enter than exit. Defence procurement takes years to achieve and is notoriously subject to inflation. As such, backing out of spending commitments is far from easy.
More dangerous is that increases in defence budgets can set off rivalry among nations to keep up not only with perceived enemies but also with allies. We have seen this in the rash of Asian and other nations – notably China, India and Japan – that have boosted their military spending plans of late.
It seems that defence ministers have got the ear of prime ministers and presidents in this regard. Their continual warnings of security risks, such as in the case of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, seem to outweigh the note of comparative caution from economic ministers.
Ideology and nationalist proclamations have at times prevailed over moderation and common sense in government-to-government relations, not least those between the US, China and Russia. Much of Asia has been reluctantly caught in the middle as it seeks to find a viable alternative.
How absurd all this looks when the “great debate” should be about how the world is going to survive climate change, guard against more pandemics, prevent a further slide back into poverty and create physical and institutional infrastructure worthy of the modern age.
Another by-product of the rise of populist and economically ill-informed national leaders – Britain and the US spring to mind among advanced economies – is that the world is not so much drifting as being pushed towards some kind of military and economic disaster.
The two feed on each other as strident nationalism is used to justify inflated military spending while also drowning out the case for economically and socially beneficial types of government spending. The drums of war are sounding and threaten to stifle the voice of reason.
Anthony Rowley is a veteran journalist specialising in Asian economic and financial affairs
