South China Morning Post
Advertisement
Advertisement
Stop signs at the Finnish-Russian border in Nuijamaa, Finland, on September 30. Finland has joined other European nations in closing its borders to Russian tourists, but moves to bar Russians from EU countries could backfire and increase support for the invasion of Ukraine. Photo: EPA-EFE
Opinion
Sameed Basha
Sameed Basha

Ukraine war: Europe turning back fleeing Russians only plays into Putin’s hands

  • Treating all Russians as part of Putin’s ambitions and applying collective punishment is a mistake by the West that could easily backfire
  • Russians fighting to conserve the values of democracy and freedom deserve the West’s support instead of its ire
Sameed Basha
Sameed Basha
Why you can trust SCMP
Isolationist strategies have become the standard measure when dealing with rogue states. As a result, Russia has felt the full force of Western-led sanctions this year, stunting its economic growth and preventing it from meeting its military objectives.
Still, recent events surrounding the partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists to salvage modest military gains and the annexation of occupied territories challenge this idea. This approach is problematic.
These countermeasures not only fail to take Russia’s history of being excluded and self-imposing exclusion from the world into account, but it will also turn democracy-valuing Russians into collateral in the war to protect Ukraine.

Russia bridges Europe with Asia, and despite the criss-crossing of so many cultures it has maintained its own identity, culture, religion and language. In the last 600 years, it has borne the brunt of exclusion from Europe and self-imposed its isolation, ending with the Iron Curtain’s fall in 1989.

Former Warsaw Pact countries rushed to join the West when they broke free from communism. The Russian Federation, on the other hand, was both attracted and repulsed at the thought of integrating itself into another faction, particularly one against which it had always competed.

The carefully staged celebrations in Moscow provide a sliver of victory on a political front, contrasting the losses on the battlefield. These annexed territories have looked eastward towards the Kremlin for support since 2014.

01:32

Putin admits to mobilisation mistakes after reports of sick, old men being drafted

Putin admits to mobilisation mistakes after reports of sick, old men being drafted
Still, beyond the capture of these territories, it will be challenging to see Russian forces occupying and conducting a “referendum” to legitimise annexing ethnically Ukrainian areas, especially now as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pushes for an accelerated Nato application. This will escalate tensions militarily between the two countries and could increase recruitment efforts beyond the call for 300,000 reservists.
This will result in an uptick in the exodus at Russia’s borders for those who can afford to do so, while others might resort to protests and civil agitation. Russian President Vladimir Putin is bound to take more control to weed out “traitors” as the momentum will not shift solely through mobilisation and annexing ethnically Russian-leaning territories.

The response from Europe, however, cannot be a complete ban on issuing visas to Russians as it is an emotive response and a counterintuitive move. In light of the current circumstances, such a move would play right into Putin’s hands, affecting not only ordinary citizens transiting, travelling or conducting business but also journalists, academics and activists.

03:15

Flocks of Russians flee to avoid draft orders, while those who stay receive blessings

Flocks of Russians flee to avoid draft orders, while those who stay receive blessings

If the foundations of the Kremlin were ever to shake, such members of Russia’s civil society would be vital in influencing public opinion and laying the groundwork for an eventual overthrow of the regime.

These people are essential to information warfare in providing alternative viewpoints to the Russian public, who are insulated from the on-the-ground realities of the persistent failure of the Russian army and its retreat in the face of advancing Ukrainian forces. Demonising all Russians fails to bring about the desired effect as the opposite occurs, rallying the public behind the leadership in question and playing right into its hands.
Members of the European Union have been at odds over placing a blanket ban on Russians travelling through Europe. Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark and the Czech Republic have temporarily blocked visas held by Russians for tourism, business and leisure purposes. The process to obtain a permit has lengthened for Russians in Finland, reducing its processing capacity from issuing 1,000 tourist visas a day to just 100 a day.

Two Putin allies ridicule Russia’s war machine in public

The partial mobilisation might tip the balance in favour of a consensus on a blanket ban on Russians entering the European Union, but this creates another dilemma. The West has upheld a semblance of moral responsibility and a liberal attitude towards distinguishing the good from the bad. Treating all Russians as part of Putin’s ambitions and applying collective punishment draws strong parallels to former US president Donald Trump’s Muslim ban.

Russia needs to be viewed through its history as an independent nation with its own values, ambitions and designs rather than through a Western lens. Putin has called the collapse of the Soviet Union a genuine tragedy and will try to muster feelings of nostalgia in restoring Russia’s “greatness”.

But no matter how dire the situation, Russians fighting to conserve the values of democracy and freedom do not deserve to bear the brunt of collective punishment. They serve as a window to persuade ordinary Russians to stop supporting the war against Ukraine.

Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia

16