My Take | Is it worth the superpowers fighting over Taiwan?
- Given the high, perhaps existential stakes involved for all sides, the frightful answer has to be, unfortunately, a yes
Let us do a thought experiment and imagine the best-case scenario from the Chinese perspective when it comes to unification with Taiwan. The first and most obvious answer falls within the realm of nationalism. The prestige of the communist state and the president will be so much boosted that we may have to reach back to the time of the Qin unification of China under the first emperor Qin Shi Huang, or something close to it, to praise the achievement. The legitimacy of the Communist Party will be cemented for the Chinese forever.
But that falls under soft power. Leaving aside nationalism and ideology, Taiwan in and of itself will be a great prize for the mainland, in its sheer potential for China’s hard power. Taking it over will be a decisive breach to the so-called first island chain of defence that is key to the United States’ naval or maritime containment of China in northern and southeast Asia. That in turn would pose a direct challenge to the US’ Pacific supremacy since the end of the second world war, and greatly aid Chinese ambitions to achieve regional dominance.
“Taiwan is located at a critical node within the first island chain, anchoring a network of US allies and partners … that is critical to the region’s security and critical to the defence of vital US interests in the Indo-Pacific,” said Ely Ratner, US assistant secretary of defence for Indo-Pacific security affairs.
The US has supposedly prepared for several more island chains of defence. But it’s the first chain, ranging from the southern Japanese archipelago, through Taiwan in the centre, and down through the Philippines to Borneo, that really counts.
Whatever you think of the other chains, and the Pentagon is adding more in the Indian Ocean (but will India play ball?), it’s the first chain that holds the key to the most economically dynamic region in the world today. A unified China will break that chain once and for all.
And, as I wrote previously, Taiwan as a computer chip-manufacturing powerhouse makes it essential to Washington’s tech war against mainland China. The taking over of Taiwan’s chip-making industry would greatly weaken the US’ technological leads over the mainland and boost China’s quest for technological mastery in multiple domains. It would, of course, remove uncertainties about China’s ability to develop key home-grown technologies to rival those of the West.
But the best-case scenario for China is also the worst for the US. That’s why for all the terrible risks and costs, Washington will deny Taiwan to the mainland, including going to war, whatever it says about its one-China policy.