My Take | It all adds up as maths, computer modelling predict border conflict
- Study of clashes between Chinese and Indian forces in the Himalayas proves useful in just confirming what is already known to analysts
Can mathematics and computer modelling predict future conflicts and clashes? And if they prove accurate sometimes, can they outperform common sense and political experience in the long run? I just came across one such prediction about the Indian-China border dispute in the Himalayas from last month. And sure enough, one occurred early this week.
On Monday, troops from both sides again briefly clashed at Arunachal Pradesh, a long-disputed border flashpoint at the eastern tip of India. There were injuries on both sides, but no one was killed. Deadly clashes in hand-to-hand combat caused the lives of more than two dozen soldiers in 2020.
It appears the latest clash was unplanned and uncoordinated but simply an accident from tensions along the so-called Line of Actual Control, despite resolution of most of the flashpoints in the past two years.
“Both sides immediately disengaged from the area,” an Indian army spokesman said, adding both sides had held a meeting immediately after “to restore peace and tranquillity”.
Dubbed the world’s longest border dispute from the war fought in 1962, there have been recurring skirmishes ever since. The research team assembled a set of the dates and locations of the major incursions from 2006 to 2020. Most of the conflicts centre in two distinct sectors: the west sections of the Line of Actual Control in the Aksai Chin region and the eastern segments of the line in Arunachal Pradesh.
North of Nepal, Aksai Chin is controlled by China but claimed by India; and east of Bhutan, Arunachal Pradesh is controlled by India but claimed by China. Using game theory and statistical methods, the team concludes the nature of the conflicts in the two regions is very different. Only the incursions by Chinese troops in Aksai Chin are part of a coordinated effort, it claims.