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Opinion | Messy Taiwan politics means KMT’s return to power is far from assured
- Despite the KMT’s big wins in the local elections, the presidential poll is a year away and there are doubts about the party’s forerunner candidate in a wide field that could spring spoilers
- Other factors include US-China tensions, economic worries and Tsai Ing-wen’s attempts to improve cross-strait relations after DPP’s election losses
After Taiwan’s recent local elections, the consensus was that the Kuomintang (KMT) had defeated the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). It won most of the metropolitan city mayorships and dominated the rest.
She had also put too much faith in support from US President Joe Biden, who has been engaging his country in an existential struggle with China over the dominance of the evolving world order. Taiwan is a pawn in this struggle and Biden’s shifting stances confused Taiwan’s voters.
Given the KMT’s local election dominance, pundits anticipate a KMT win in the presidential, vice-presidential and legislative elections in January 2024, barely a year away. Momentum favours the KMT, and Taiwan’s electoral history, with its seeming rotation of ruling parties every two terms, supports this.
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Taiwan elections: DPP's Tsai announces resignation as party chief after KMT wins big
But Taiwan politics is complicated and the selection of presidential candidates could add to this.