Opinion | Can Marcos maintain warm economic ties with China amid a military tilt to the US?

Giving the US expanded access to strategic bases has major implications, placing the Philippines at the centre of Washington’s ‘integrated deterrence’ strategy against China

However, Manila can maintain stable ties with China if it sets parameters with the US, and depending on how Beijing approaches maritime disputes and infrastructure investment

Reading Time:4 minutes

Published: 3:30am, 14 Feb 2023

“The Philippines shall continue to be a friend to all, and an enemy of none,” declared Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr at the UN General Assembly last September. Since then, he has repeatedly underscored his commitment to an “independent” foreign policy, prioritising national interest through optimal relations with all major powers.

Marcos has reached out to both the East and West, taking foreign eight trips in barely seven months in power, visiting major capitals from Brussels to Beijing. At the World Economic Forum in Davos last month, he rejected the “Cold War type of scenario where you have to choose one side or the other”, saying “we are determined to stay away from that”.

Despite this, the Philippines has granted the United States expanded access to strategically located bases under their Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). The decision, announced during US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s visit to Manila this month, caught many by surprise, political allies and fierce critics alike.

It was Marcos’ most consequential decision yet, with major geopolitical implications, since it placed the nation at the centre of Washington’s “integrated deterrence” strategy against China.

Still, the Philippines can maintain relatively stable relations with Beijing if it calibrates the parameters of its military ties with the West. Much will also depend on the trajectory of maritime disputes in the South China Sea and the realisation of China’s infrastructure investment plans in the Philippines.

Marcos’ seeming about-face has sparked a debate on the true nature of his foreign policy. Some welcomed his decision as a correction of the anti-Western orientation of former president Rodrigo Duterte, who not only refused to fully implement the EDCA but also threatened to end the defence alliance with the US.

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